2026 年日本股票策略展望_旭日东升，牛市咆哮 —— 日本归来

Summary of Japan Equity Strategy Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Japanese equity market, specifically the TOPIX index, with a target of 3,600 points by December 2026, indicating a potential increase of nearly 10% from current levels [2][9][15]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Economic Growth and Inflation: Japan is transitioning from a low-inflation environment to one where inflation is expected to approach 2%, leading to growth, wage increases, and improved pricing flexibility [4][12]. 2. Corporate Governance Reforms: Reforms by the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the Financial Services Agency are enhancing corporate governance, prompting companies to rethink balance-sheet management [4][13]. 3. Investment Opportunities: The report highlights sectors poised for growth, including Construction & Materials, Machinery, Electrical Equipment & Precision Instruments, IT Services, and Banks, while expressing caution towards Food, Pharmaceuticals, and Transportation sectors [9][40][46]. 4. External Risks: Significant uncertainty from external shocks is acknowledged, with a wide dispersion between bullish and bearish equity outlooks. Key risks include a potential US economic slowdown and sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen [5][9][35]. 5. Fiscal Policy: The Takaichi administration is expected to emphasize economic security and strategic investments in technologies essential for national security, such as AI and semiconductors [5][39]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. Earnings Projections: EPS growth for TOPIX constituents is projected at +16% for 2026, with a further +9% increase in 2027, indicating robust corporate earnings momentum [19]. 2. Valuation Metrics: The report outlines a forward P/E ratio of 15.0x for the base case, with a potential range from 12.2x in a bear case to 17.0x in a bull case, reflecting a significant range of market expectations [14][19]. 3. Sector-Specific Insights: - Cyclical Sectors: The report recommends focusing on cyclical sectors that can withstand US economic uncertainties, particularly those backed by government investment [39][40]. - Underperforming Sectors: Structural headwinds in Food, Pharmaceuticals, and Transportation sectors are highlighted, with expectations of underperformance during economic expansions [46]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for Japanese equities remains positive, with a strong emphasis on building resilient portfolios to navigate potential external shocks. The anticipated fiscal policies and corporate governance reforms are expected to drive long-term growth and profitability in the Japanese market [5][15][19].