2026 年亚洲新兴市场股票展望 - 不确定世界中的稳健策略-Investor Presentation-2026 Asia EM Equity Outlook –A Robust Approach for an Uncertain World

Summary of the 2026 Asia EM Equity Outlook Conference Call Industry Overview - Focus on Asia Emerging Markets (EM) equity outlook for 2026 - Emphasis on macroeconomic uncertainty and market risk management Key Points and Arguments 1. Market Risk Positioning: - Recommendation for tight market-risk positions against benchmarks with a slight preference for Japan over other emerging markets in 2026 [14][22][26] 2. Stock Selection Strategy: - Emphasis on stock selection through GEM, APxJ, China, Japan, and Thematic Focus Lists to generate alpha amidst macro uncertainty [14][22] 3. Earnings and Valuation Targets: - Raised base case targets while highlighting a wider bear to bull spread; moderate optimism on China with an equal-weight recommendation [14][26] - Specific earnings per share (EPS) targets for Japan's TOPIX index: ¥185 (+9%) for F3/25, ¥198 (+7%) for F3/26, and ¥225 (+14%) for F3/27 [26] 4. Regional Allocations: - Small overweights in India, Brazil, UAE, and Singapore; underweights in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Taiwan [14][22] - Core overweights in Financials, Consumer Discretionary/E-commerce, and Industrials; underweight in Energy and Materials [14] 5. Market Performance Rankings: - Historical performance rankings indicate Japan, Hong Kong, and India as top performers in various years, with significant fluctuations in other markets like Brazil and China [18][19] 6. Valuation Metrics: - Forward P/E ratios forecasted: 15.0x for Japan, 13.0x for EM, and 12.7x for China [36] - Consensus EPS trends show positive revisions for Japan and China, with EM moving to neutral [32][34] 7. Market Index Targets: - MSCI EM index target set at 1,800 for December 2026, with a current price of 1,372 [26] - TOPIX index target set at 4,250 for December 2026, with a current price of 3,300 [26] Additional Important Insights - Earnings Revision Breadth: Positive for Japan and China, indicating potential upward momentum in earnings forecasts [32] - Active Allocations: Current active allocations show a preference for Japan and India, with adjustments in Taiwan and Saudi Arabia [38] - Long-term Structural Trends: Expectation of an extension of the post-2013 structural uptrend for the TOPIX index [22] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the Asia EM equity outlook for 2026.