中国股票策略 - A 股情绪因经济数据平淡而回落-China Equity Strategy-A-Share Sentiment Fell Amid Muted Economic Data

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: A-Shares in China - Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment in the A-share market has weakened, with a notable decline in the MSASI (Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator) metrics, indicating lower risk appetite and muted economic data as the year ends [1][3][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - Sentiment Metrics: - The weighted MSASI decreased by 8% to 51% compared to the previous cut-off date, and the 1-month moving average (MMA) of MSASI fell by 3% to 65% [1][3]. - Daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, and equity futures decreased by 6% (to RMB 464 billion), 11% (to RMB 1,728 billion), and 5% (to RMB 403 billion), respectively [1][3]. - Margin transaction turnover remained stable at RMB 2,472 billion, indicating a lack of significant changes in leveraged trading [1][3]. - Economic Data: - Recent economic data shows resilient production growth at 6.9% YoY for mid- to downstream sectors, but consumption and investment are weakening, with retail sales excluding gold dropping to 2.2%, the lowest in 16 months [3][12]. - Capital expenditure (capex) has slowed broadly, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing, reflecting reduced fiscal impulse and anti-involution measures in some sectors [3][12]. - GDP Projections: - The China Economics Team projects 4Q real GDP growth at 4.6% YoY, with nominal GDP growth likely remaining below 4% YoY due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and deflationary pressures [3][12]. Future Outlook - 2026 Projections: - The outlook for 2026 is viewed as a year of stabilization following the high returns of 2025, with modest index upside and moderate earnings per share (EPS) growth expected at 6% [13]. - New index targets for Chinese equities have been set: Hang Seng at 27,500, HSCEI at 9,700, MSCI China at 90, and CSI 300 at 4,840, implying potential upsides of 6%, 6%, 7%, and 5%, respectively [13]. - Market Dynamics: - Flows and liquidity are expected to remain net positive in 2026 for both A-share and offshore markets, with anticipated on-par performance between the two [13]. Additional Important Insights - Property Market: - The property market is facing challenges, with national sales dropping 24% YoY in value and 19% YoY in volume for October, indicating a worsening sentiment among residents and higher inventory levels [12]. - Home price declines have slightly accelerated, with primary markets down 0.5% MoM and secondary markets down 0.7% MoM in October [12]. - Investor Behavior: - The consensus earnings estimate revision breadth remains negative, indicating a lack of confidence among analysts regarding future earnings growth [1][3]. - Methodology of MSASI: - The MSASI is constructed using 12 individual indicators capturing various dimensions of investor sentiment and market activity, normalized to reduce noise and reflect medium-term sentiment trends [14][22]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the A-share market in China.