中国市场周启动_全球风险规避致市场下跌 4-5%；推出 “十五五” 规划组合-China Weekly Kickstart_ Markets dropped 4-5% on global risk off; We introduced 15th Five-Year Plan Portfolio

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the performance of the Chinese equity market, specifically the MXCN and CSI300 indices, which dropped by 5.5% and 3.8% respectively amid a global selloff in equities [1][1]. - The offshore Internet sector underperformed, with the HSTECH index declining by 7.2% [1][1]. - The report highlights the introduction of the GS 15th Five-Year Plan Portfolio, which includes 50 mid-cap companies positioned to benefit from policy tailwinds over the next five years [1][1]. Core Insights and Arguments - Market Performance: The report notes that 88% of all listed companies in China have reported earnings, with 9M/3Q25 earnings rising by 7% and 13% year-over-year [36][36]. - Policy Developments: There are indications that Chinese policymakers are considering a new property stimulus package, potentially including mortgage subsidies for first-time home buyers [1][1]. - Fiscal Data: On-budget fiscal revenue growth has slightly increased, while fiscal expenditure growth has significantly declined [1][1]. - Investment Inflows: Southbound investment saw inflows of US$5.0 billion this week, with year-to-date inflows totaling US$175 billion [1][4]. Earnings and Valuations - The forward price-to-earnings ratios for MXCN and CSI300 are reported at 12.3x and 13.9x respectively [9][9]. - Earnings growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 3% and 15% for MXCN, and 15% and 14% for CSI300 [9][9]. - Financials and Materials sectors have seen the most upward revisions in earnings estimates [9][9]. Sector Performance - The report indicates that certain sectors such as Real Estate (3.9%) and Dividend Yield (3.7%) outperformed, while Information Technology (-2.7%) and Momentum (-3.8%) lagged [8][8]. - The analysis of past Five-Year Plans suggests that following Chinese policy could yield significant rewards in the equity market, with top-performing sectors historically including Autos, Telecom Services, and Materials [12][12]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the 15th Five-Year Plan, which focuses on modernization, security, and science/technology [10][10]. - The portfolio introduced is expected to outperform the benchmark, driven primarily by earnings growth and delivery [21][21]. - The report also highlights that the equity market has lagged nominal growth over the past decade, indicating potential for future recovery [14][14]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the report suggests cautious optimism for the Chinese equity market, driven by policy support and potential recovery in earnings growth. The introduction of the GS 15th Five-Year Plan Portfolio is positioned as a strategic move to capitalize on upcoming policy shifts and market opportunities [1][1][21][21].