2025-11-24 01:46Summary of AIDC-driven ESS Battery Expert Call Industry Overview - The focus of the call was on AIDC-driven ESS (Energy Storage Systems) batteries, highlighting the rapid growth in demand due to AI-driven data centers, electrification, and changes in power supply architecture [2][6][7]. Key Companies Discussed - Sungrow: Potential for re-rating due to direct sales to data centers on new use cases [2]. - CATL: Recognized as a global leader in ESS batteries [2]. - LGES: Well-positioned to capture opportunities in the US ESS market [2]. Core Insights - Global ESS Battery Shipments: Expected to exceed 600 GWh in 2025, representing over 70% year-on-year growth. GGII forecasts a 20% growth in 2026 to 750 GWh, with a long-term CAGR of 20% from 2025 to 2030, reaching 1.5 TWh [5][6]. - Chinese Market Growth: Chinese shipments projected to reach 580 GWh in 2025, up 76% year-on-year. Q3 2025 shipments were 165 GWh, a 65% increase year-on-year [5]. - Overseas Market Expansion: 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for overseas ESS markets, with strong order momentum from regions like the Middle East, Australia, Southeast Asia, and Europe. Chinese manufacturers exported 11 GWh to Eastern Europe in Q3 [5][6]. Demand Drivers - AIDC ESS Demand: Currently only 2% of global ESS battery shipments (15 GWh), but expected to grow at an 82% CAGR to 300 GWh by 2030, driven by increased electricity consumption in data centers [6][7]. - Data Center Power Supply Changes: The shift from traditional UPS systems to advanced solutions like 800V HVDC is transforming ESS systems from optional to necessary [7]. Competitive Landscape - Major Chinese players such as Huawei, CATL, Sungrow, and Hithium are leading in AIDC ESS solutions. The competition with Japanese and Korean players is intensifying in the US due to IRA policy [7]. - Chinese manufacturers are expected to capture a significant market share outside the US due to advantages in product quality, cost, and service [7]. Future Outlook - GGII anticipates a nearly 100% green energy mix for AIDC power generation by 2030, with significant implications for the ESS market [6]. - The integration of long-duration ESS systems is expected to become standard practice in AIDC facilities, enhancing energy efficiency and meeting long-duration power requirements [7]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of policy-driven demand and supportive measures in China as key factors for the surge in shipments [5]. - The competitive dynamics in the AIDC ESS industry are still evolving, with ongoing developments from key players summarized in the report [7][17].