房地产：2026行业展望及投资策略更新

Summary of Real Estate Industry and Company Insights Industry Overview - The Chinese real estate market has cooled since Q2 2023, with housing prices reverting to levels seen before September 2024. New home transaction volumes have seen a year-on-year decline, while second-hand home transactions have weakened on a month-on-month basis. The land market's premium rate is below 5% [1][2]. - A recovery in the market requires addressing high housing price-to-income ratios and excessive inventory, alongside a supportive monetary policy [1]. Key Insights and Arguments - In a neutral scenario, total housing transaction volumes are expected to contract further by approximately 5%, with new construction area declining by 16% year-on-year and real estate investment dropping by about 15% [1][6]. - The current real estate market is in a bottoming phase, with per capita transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes reaching a low point. A slight decline is anticipated over the next 1-2 years [1][7]. - Urban renovation has potential to stimulate demand, but its effectiveness is uncertain due to land market liquidity constraints [1][8]. - Major real estate companies are trading at over a 40% discount to their net liquidation value, indicating a deep discount level. Price assumptions for 2026 and 2027 suggest a conservative expectation of a double-digit decline [1][9]. Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The real estate cycle's upward shift depends on systemic repairs to existing issues, including a healthy housing price-to-income ratio and stable leverage conditions [3][4]. - The market faces two main challenges: high housing price-to-income ratios in major cities and excessive inventory, which can be addressed through fiscal expansion policies [5][6]. - If policies can effectively address these issues, a more positive market development scenario may emerge, with total housing transaction volumes and new home transaction volumes expected to decline only slightly in 2026 [8][10]. Short-term and Long-term Projections - Short-term caution is advised for real estate stocks, with a potential turning point expected in Q2 2024 as macroeconomic conditions improve [11]. - The commercial real estate sector is projected to perform well in 2025, benefiting from strong same-store sales growth and long-term capital seeking high dividend returns [12]. Commercial Real Estate Insights - The commercial real estate sector is expected to see good performance in 2025, driven by strong same-store sales growth and favorable financing conditions [12][13]. - The market share is increasingly concentrated among leading companies, with significant growth in same-store sales for top operators [13]. - The luxury goods market is expected to recover gradually, with a moderate growth outlook for 2026 [14][15]. Investment Recommendations - For real estate stocks, a cautious approach is recommended, focusing on companies with sustainable rental income and dividend yields, such as Swire Properties and China Resources Land, which are expected to achieve 5-10% rental profit growth alongside a 5-6% dividend yield [19][20]. - The property management sector is projected to grow at a rate similar to 2025, with specific companies like Greentown Service and Poly Property recommended for their strong performance and stable cash flow [20]. Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The Hong Kong real estate market is currently stabilizing, with transaction volumes around 5,000 units. A significant increase in transactions could signal a recovery phase [21][22]. - The market requires strong macroeconomic trends to catalyze further growth, particularly in light of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [22].