固收 股债双弱，怎么做？

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The current market environment is characterized by a simultaneous decline in both equity and bond markets, primarily driven by changes in liquidity expectations rather than liquidity itself [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments - Liquidity Expectations: The central bank's report suggests a potential decrease in credit growth and a reduction in interbank leverage, leading to lowered expectations for overall monetary policy. Structural tools are becoming the main method for liquidity provision, impacting market sentiment [1][3]. - Real Estate Policy Rumors: Speculation regarding enhanced real estate policies, particularly interest subsidy policies, has reinforced market perceptions of cross-cycle policies, causing fluctuations in trading sentiment and resulting in weak performance in both stock and bond markets [1][4]. - 30-Year Treasury Bond Competition: The competition for active 30-year treasury bonds reflects trading sentiment but is fundamentally seen as a gimmick. Not all bonds can maintain active status, and traders should capitalize on market sentiment to extract value [1][5]. - T2 and T6 Bond Liquidity: T2 bonds currently exhibit poor liquidity, while T6 bonds are relatively active. The spread between T2 and T6 is approximately 5 basis points (BP), below the theoretical value of 7 BP, primarily due to declining liquidity expectations for T2 [1][7]. - Investment Strategy: Investors are advised to adopt a long-term perspective on spread changes and consider switching bond holdings. Focus should be on short-term products and 3-7 year government bonds, which have shown good relative value recently [1][8]. Additional Important Insights - Market Dynamics: The weak correlation between stock and bond markets suggests independent factors affecting each market. The prevailing view is that liquidity expectations have shifted, impacting market performance [3][4]. - Future Opportunities: In the coming months, attention should be directed towards short-term products and mid-term government bonds. The opening of numerous carbon credit bonds in December and the first quarter of the following year will provide strategic opportunities [2][9]. - Relative Value Observations: Investment strategies should be based on the relative value changes among different bond types over various maturities, allowing for a more structured approach to investment [2][9].