Summary of Miniso's Earnings Call Company Overview - Company: Miniso - Date: November 24, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Performance - Domestic Market: The domestic market has stabilized and improved, contributing two-thirds of the company's profits. The business model and profitability are stable, reducing tail risks [3][12] - Overseas Market: The overseas market achieved low single-digit same-store sales growth. The Top Toy business grew by 110%, significantly contributing to revenue, although franchise and agency performance in Latin America and Asia was slightly below expectations [2][4] Financial Performance - Revenue Growth: Miniso reported a revenue growth of 28.2%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of around 25%. Domestic same-store sales grew nearly 10% [4] - Profitability: The company's net profit growth was 12%, which was 3 percentage points lower than Bloomberg's consensus. This was primarily due to a 0.2 percentage point decline in gross margin, attributed to an increase in third-party products and tariff fluctuations [2][4][5] Future Projections - Net Profit Forecast: For 2025, Miniso expects a net profit of approximately 2.9 billion RMB, with a fourth-quarter profit of about 850 million RMB. If the profit margin of U.S. stores improves by 2-3 percentage points in 2026, adjusted net profit could reach 3.5 billion RMB [6][8] - Valuation: The current price-to-earnings ratio is around 15 times for 2025, considered low. If performance improves as expected, the valuation could significantly increase [6][13] U.S. Market Insights - Contribution to GMV: The U.S. market contributes about 10% to the company's GMV and 20-30% to revenue. In 2025, there are 421 U.S. stores with an average monthly sales of 700,000 RMB [7][11] - Store Performance: New stores have shown a 1.5 times increase in sales efficiency and a 1.3 times increase in sales per square meter compared to older stores. However, new stores still represent a small percentage of total stores, and overall effects will take time to materialize [10][11] Investment and Financing - Investment in Yonghui: Miniso's investment in Yonghui is measured using the equity method, accounting for 29% of Yonghui's net profit in Miniso's financials. Financing activities for the acquisition resulted in approximately 150 million RMB in interest costs [9] Market Sentiment - Stock Price and Valuation Outlook: The stock price has overly reflected negative news, with a market cap of about 45 billion HKD (approximately 40 billion RMB). Even under pessimistic forecasts, the P/E ratio for next year is around 13 times, indicating a potentially undervalued position [13]
名创优品20251124