如何看待焦煤期货大跌原因及持续性？

Summary of Conference Call on Coking Coal Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the coking coal market, particularly in relation to supply and demand dynamics influenced by external factors such as Mongolian coal exports and domestic production expectations [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Supply Dynamics - Increased coal throughput from Mongolia and enhanced domestic production expectations are leading to marginal easing pressures on the supply side [1]. - The inventory at Ganqimaodu Port has surpassed 2.8 million tons, with Mongolia planning to significantly increase coal exports to China to 100 million tons, up from less than 80 million tons last year, indicating a potential growth of over 20% [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting on energy supply for the 2025-2026 heating season has raised concerns about production control relaxation, which could lead to increased supply [2][3]. Demand Dynamics - Steel mill profitability has deteriorated, leading to increased expectations of production cuts, which in turn reduces the willingness to actively replenish coking coal inventories [1][2]. - Despite iron output remaining relatively high, there is a downward trend, with a week-on-week decrease of approximately 0.3% [2][3]. - The average cost of long-process steelmaking has dropped significantly, with margins nearing -170 yuan/ton, a decline of about 140 yuan/ton since late September [3]. Price Trends - Coking coal prices at Jingtang Port have decreased by 80 yuan to 1,780 yuan/ton, primarily due to supply disruptions [4]. - The short-term price of thermal coal remains stable at 834 yuan/ton, with power plant inventory reaching 135 million tons, close to last year's peak [4]. - The overall expectation for coking coal prices in Q4 is a stable and oscillating trend, contingent on steel mill profitability recovery and tight supply conditions [4][5]. Additional Insights - The focus of supply guarantee meetings has primarily been on thermal coal, with limited impact on coking coal [1][3]. - The current import dependency for coking coal is approximately 20%, limiting the contribution of Mongolian coal increases [3]. - The strict safety regulations in the coal mining sector have kept coal mine and port inventories at historical lows, providing solid support for price floors [4]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is viewed positively due to short-term price certainty and mid-cycle reversal trends [5]. - Recommended stocks include low-valuation leaders like China Coal Energy, expected to achieve 17 billion yuan in earnings this year, with A-share valuations at 10-11 times and Hong Kong shares at around 8 times [5]. - Other notable companies include Shaanxi Coal and Shenhua, which are considered dividend leaders with a yield of approximately 4.7%-5% based on current prices and last year's dividend ratios [5]. - For growth-oriented investments, companies like Jinkong and Huayang are prioritized, with at least 30% volume growth potential [5]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the coking coal market, highlighting supply and demand factors, price trends, and investment opportunities.