中国医疗行业近期走弱或为 2026 年布局良机-Recent China healthcare sector weakness could mean a good setup for 2026

Summary of the Conference Call on China Healthcare Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China healthcare sector, highlighting recent weaknesses and potential opportunities for 2026 [2][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - Current Market Performance: The Hang Seng Healthcare Index (HSHCI) has declined by 3.1%, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.6%. The HSHCI has dropped approximately 17% from its year-to-date high in early October, with some small and mid-cap stocks down around 30% [2][5]. - Valuation Outlook: Despite the current weakness, the fundamentals of the sector remain intact, and valuations are becoming more attractive, suggesting a potential rebound in 2026 [2][5][6]. - Investment Recommendations: - Biotech: Innovent and Kelun Biotech (rated Overweight) - Pharma: Hansoh Pharma and Hengrui-A (rated Overweight) - CXO: WuXi Apptec and WuXi XDC (rated Overweight) - Caution is advised regarding Akeso due to unclear updates on HARMONi-2 OS [2][5][6]. Upcoming Events and Legislative Considerations - NRDL Price Negotiations: Anticipated results from the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) price negotiations are expected to be neutral to negative, reflecting the current weak sentiment [5][6]. - Biosecure Act: The potential passing of the Biosecure Act could be a negative headline event, although it is not expected to significantly impact China CXOs' business [5][6]. - Medical Conferences: Upcoming medical conferences in December (e.g., ASH'25 and SABCS'25) are not expected to affect overall sentiment towards the China healthcare sector [5][6]. Emerging Themes for 2026 - Potential interest in new drug modalities such as siRNA (small interfering RNA) and RDC (radionuclide drug conjugate) is anticipated, along with expectations for global Phase 3 data from out-licensed assets [5][6]. - A healthy out-licensing deal flow is expected in 2026, although it may not surpass the total deal size of 2025 due to several significant deals this year [6]. - The JPM Global Healthcare Conference in January 2026 is expected to provide further insights into the prospects for the China healthcare sector, with presentations from over a dozen public and private Chinese companies [6]. Key Companies Discussed - Akeso (9926.HK) - Hansoh Pharma (3692.HK) - Hengrui (600276.SS) - Innovent Biologics (1801.HK) - Kelun Biotech (6990.HK) - WuXi AppTec (603259.SS and 2359.HK) - WuXi XDC (2268.HK) [8]. Conclusion - The China healthcare sector is currently facing challenges but presents potential investment opportunities as valuations become more attractive. Key themes and developments in 2026 will be closely monitored, particularly in light of upcoming conferences and legislative changes [2][5][6].