中国市场出现复苏迹象-Signs of recovery in Chinese market

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call on Swiss Watch Exports Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Swiss watch industry, specifically the export statistics for October 2025 released by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Export Value Decline: The value of Swiss watch exports decreased by 4% year-on-year (y-y) to CHF 2,242 million in October 2025. The value of watch exports specifically fell by 4% y-y to CHF 2,133 million, while export volume increased by 1% to 1.4 million units [1]. - Regional Export Performance: - Exports to the US dropped significantly by 47% y-y to CHF 224 million, attributed to a fallback from inventory stockpiling rather than a decline in underlying demand [1][2]. - Exports to Europe rose by 3% to CHF 726 million [1]. - Exports to China (including Hong Kong) increased by 8% to CHF 354 million, indicating signs of recovery in the Chinese market [1][2]. - Exports to Japan decreased by 6% to CHF 180 million, while exports to other regions rose by 8% to CHF 758 million [1]. - US Tariff Impact: The US and Switzerland announced a potential reduction of the US tariff on Swiss imports to 15%. However, this is not expected to significantly alter pricing strategies in the near term, as Swiss watchmakers still have existing inventories from before the tariff imposition [3]. - Inbound Sales Trends: Concerns were raised regarding the impact of the Chinese government's travel advisory for Japan on inbound sales. However, the rise in sales to Western visitors has lessened the importance of Chinese visitors. Inbound sales accounted for 10-20% of watch sales in Japan for companies like Casio, Citizen Watch, and Seiko [4]. Additional Important Insights - Stock Management: Swatch Group reported an increase in US stock from six months to ten months of sales, indicating a strategic response to the inventory situation [2]. - Sales Performance in China: Richemont noted a marked improvement in total sales in China, Hong Kong, and Macau, with a 7% increase in Q2 [2]. - Local Sales in China: Local sales in China have also been affected, with Casio's sales weighting in China dropping sharply to around 7% from a peak of 23% [4]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the Swiss watch industry, highlighting the challenges and opportunities faced by companies in this sector.