中国光伏：盈利能力拐点追踪（2025 年 11 月）-上游价格与供给自 7 月以来首次下降-China Solar_ Tracking profitability inflection_ Nov-25_ Upstream price_supply declined for the first time since July-25

Summary of China Solar Profitability Tracker - November 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the solar industry in China, particularly the dynamics of upstream and downstream segments, including pricing trends and profitability metrics for various solar components [1][3][5]. Key Highlights Pricing and Profitability Trends - Upstream wafer and cell prices declined by an average of 5% in November compared to October, attributed to a 70% increase in inventory in the solar cell segment amid weaker downstream demand [3][5]. - The production across the solar value chain is expected to decline by an average of 6% month-over-month in November, with the poly segment experiencing a significant drop of 16% [3][5]. - Despite a lower production-to-demand ratio of 110% in November (down from 116% in October), producer-side inventory days are projected to increase to 38 days from 33 days [8][10]. Export and Demand Dynamics - Cell and module export volumes decreased by 1% and 24% month-over-month, respectively, primarily due to reduced restocking activities as the overseas peak demand season concludes [3][5]. - The shift in procurement demand from India to Southeast Asia has also impacted export volumes [3]. Market Valuation and Risks - The market is currently pricing in solar component prices at Rmb57/kg for poly, Rmb1.8/pc for wafers, Rmb0.66/w for cells, and Rmb13/sqm for glass, indicating a potential downside risk of 33% for the coverage [3][13]. - The ongoing anti-involution campaign and restrictions on below-cost pricing are expected to only mildly improve the pricing outlook for poly, with downstream players likely needing to reduce selling prices to maintain market share [4]. Profitability Metrics - November's spot price implied cash profitability deteriorated in upstream segments while improving in downstream segments [5][7]. - The average cash gross profit margin (GPM) for Tier 1 poly is reported at 34%, with a decrease of 1 percentage point month-over-month [7]. Additional Insights - The report suggests a preference for investments in film, high-efficiency modules, and granular poly, while advising against investments in glass, rod poly, and certain wafer and equipment manufacturers [4]. - The analysis indicates that normalized profitability in the mid-to-long run is expected to remain low unless there is a reduction in Tier 1 capacity [4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the November 2025 China Solar Profitability Tracker, highlighting the current challenges and dynamics within the solar industry.