Summary of JD Logistics Conference Call Company Overview - Company: JD Logistics (2618.HK) - Industry: China Ecommerce & Logistics Key Points Discussed 1. Overseas Investment Strategy - JD Logistics is maintaining a steady investment pace into FY26, with a total overseas warehouse area of 1.3 million square meters across 130+ warehouses, achieving a goal of doubling overseas warehouse space over the past year [1] - The company plans to continue investing in additional overseas warehouses and automation equipment, focusing primarily on Europe and Southeast Asia [1] - The overseas business is expected to be approximately breakeven in 2024, but the company anticipates losses in the range of several hundred million RMB in FY25 and FY26 due to upfront investments [1] - Limited pricing pressure is observed in the overseas market, with local execution emphasized as a key factor [1] 2. International Growth Momentum - The international business currently contributes mid-single-digit revenue to total revenue, with high double-digit growth over recent quarters [2] - The company expects to sustain this high growth momentum over the next 2-3 years, significantly increasing overseas revenue contribution [2] - JD Logistics launched its self-operated express delivery brand "JoyExpress" in Saudi Arabia in June 2025 and is collaborating with JD Group's JoyBuy in Europe, initiating testing in several countries including the UK, Germany, France, and Benelux [2] 3. Synergies with Delivery Riders and Quick Commerce - The company leverages its delivery riders for intra-city services for 3C and luxury brand clients, with rider costs per order comparable to peers when excluding social security costs [3] - New business models are being explored to improve capacity utilization, including pilot operations of couriers fulfilling food delivery orders during off-peak hours [3] 4. Cost Efficiency through AI and Automation - JD Logistics has developed a mature automation stack, particularly in sorting and storage, which reduces human intervention and operational costs [4] - Thousands of autonomous vehicles have been deployed across approximately 20 cities, extending courier dispatch windows by 3-5 hours [4] - The company plans disciplined deployment of additional automation equipment into FY26, with expectations of sustained cost reductions from high automation penetration [4] 5. Profitability Outlook - A more disciplined investment cadence is noted for FY26, with improving utilization of existing investments expected by 4Q25 [10] - The company remains committed to investing in automation technologies and strategically focusing on B2B integrated supply-chain growth opportunities due to intense price competition in the low-value 2C express delivery segment [10] 6. Revenue Contributions and Growth - Revenue from JD Group is projected to decline to approximately 30% in 2023 from over 50% in 2020, indicating a diversification in revenue sources [14] - The company continues to see healthy growth in the time-definite delivery segment, driven by strong retail parcels and fresh products [11] 7. Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for JD Logistics are as follows: - 2024: RMB 182.84 billion - 2025: RMB 216.55 billion - 2026: RMB 235.46 billion - 2027: RMB 252.89 billion [12] - The company anticipates a gross profit margin of approximately 9.3% for FY26 [12] 8. Risks and Challenges - Key risks include significant revenue reliance on JD Group, concentration in a few industries, and potential growth pressures due to macroeconomic softness affecting customer focus on cost savings [14] Conclusion - JD Logistics is positioned for growth with a focus on international expansion, automation, and cost efficiency, despite facing challenges related to market competition and economic conditions. The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HK$17.70, indicating a potential upside of 48.1% from the current price [15]
京东物流：调研要点-布局海外市场；AI 与自动化驱动成本效率提升；买入