中国基础材料监测（2025 年 11 月）：需求疲软迹象增多-China Basic Materials Monitor_ November 2025_ more signs of weaker demand

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor (November 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Basic Materials industry, highlighting signs of weaker demand across various sectors, including white goods, renewables, and construction, which are experiencing a sequential deterioration beyond seasonal factors [1][1][1]. - Infrastructure projects are at multi-year low start rates due to funding challenges from local governments [1][1][1]. - The automotive sector remains robust currently, but concerns are emerging for the first quarter of 2026 [1][1][1]. - Energy Storage System (ESS) batteries are seeing accelerated growth, with positive expectations for 2026 based on producer feedback [1][1][1]. Demand Trends - Current demand in China is reported to be 7-12% lower year-on-year for cement and construction steel, and 5-10% lower for flat steel, copper, and aluminum [1][1][1]. - Finished goods inventory has increased, primarily due to metal fabrications and selected appliances and machinery [1][1][1]. - The forward orderbook trend is mostly stable month-on-month, with 61% of respondents indicating an increase in downstream sectors and 35% in basic materials for November [2][2][2]. Supply Dynamics - On the supply side, there is excess production and safety inspections leading to a contraction in output in key coal-producing regions [1][1][1]. - Incremental changes in cement and steel production have been limited [1][1][1]. - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for coal, aluminum, copper, and lithium, while steel prices have softened and cement prices remain stable [1][1][1]. Key Statistics - The report indicates a deceleration in demand due to high commodity prices and the diminishing momentum from trade-in programs [1][1][1]. - The current demand metrics reflect a significant decline across various materials, indicating potential risks for investors in the basic materials sector [1][1][1]. Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is facing challenges with weaker demand across multiple sectors, particularly in construction and infrastructure, while some segments like automotive and ESS batteries show resilience. The supply side is also adjusting to these demand changes, with implications for pricing and production strategies moving forward.