全球资产启动篇：风险偏好反转- 追踪 “金发经济” 行情的回落-GOAL Kickstart_ Risk appetite reversal - tracking the setback in the 'Goldilocks' rally

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of the financial markets, particularly focusing on the US economy, labor market, and the technology sector, especially AI-related investments. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite - The 'Goldilocks' rally is fading as market optimism around growth and dovish Federal Reserve expectations diminishes. The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) has dropped to zero, indicating a significant reduction in risk appetite among investors [1][2][3]. 2. US Labor Market and Economic Indicators - US unemployment has risen to 4.4%, despite stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. Upcoming economic data, including September retail sales and jobless claims, will be closely monitored [1][2]. 3. AI Sector Dynamics - AI companies are facing increased scrutiny as their credit markets are being used to fund capital expenditures (capex). The issuance of debt by these companies has increased, leading to a decline in cash balances to levels comparable to median non-financial investment-grade issuers [3][4]. 4. Equity Market Positioning - There has been a notable shift in equity positioning, particularly among mutual funds and hedge funds, with a reduction in positions in the 'Magnificent 7' tech stocks. This reflects a growing disparity between winners and losers in the AI trade [2][3]. 5. Earnings Outlook - Despite setbacks, US earnings sentiment remains positive, suggesting potential for attractive returns, particularly outside the tech sector. The report maintains a modestly pro-risk asset allocation into 2026, favoring equities over credit [4][18]. 6. Emerging Markets (EM) Perspective - The report highlights a constructive view on EM equities, suggesting that conservative positioning and diversification towards tech and AI exposure could present opportunities for growth [4]. Additional Important Insights 1. Credit Market Trends - Credit spreads for investment-grade tech companies have widened relative to the broader market, reaching a 15-year high, indicating increased risk perception among investors [3][14]. 2. Valuation Metrics - Current equity valuations are elevated, with the S&P 500 trading at a forward P/E ratio of 22.0x, placing it in the 88th percentile of expensiveness over the last decade [61]. 3. Sector Performance - Consumer discretionary sectors have underperformed amid the sell-off of AI-exposed stocks, reflecting broader market volatility and investor sentiment shifts [2][16]. 4. Global Fund Flows - The report notes significant fund flows across various asset classes, with a notable shift towards safer assets as risk appetite declines [73][81]. 5. Future Projections - The report outlines forecasts for various asset classes, indicating potential upside for equities and challenges for credit markets in the near term [22]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into market dynamics, sector performance, and future outlooks.