美国关税影响追踪：上周环比小幅走弱；数据显示下周或先回升、两周后趋缓-US Tariff Impact Tracker_ Sequentials Slightly Negative Last Week; Data Suggest Next Week Could Be Positive Before Moderation 2-Weeks Out

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the impact of tariffs on global supply chains, particularly freight flows from China to the USA, and the transportation sector's performance in light of these dynamics [1][4][10]. Core Observations - Freight Volume Trends: - Laden vessels from China to the USA decreased by 3% week-over-week (WoW) and 26% year-over-year (YoY) [1][3]. - Expected TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) into the Port of Los Angeles are projected to increase by 26% next week, followed by a moderation of 6% two weeks out [3][10]. - Rail intermodal volumes along the West Coast were down 11% YoY, indicating a decline in import trends post-summer [3][11]. - Ocean Container Rates: - Ocean container rates fell by 31% sequentially and are down 62% YoY, reflecting pressure from shipper attempts to implement General Rate Increases (GRIs) [3][35]. - Truck Load Availability: - Truck load availability on the West Coast decreased by 32% YoY, despite the peak season [3][49]. Tariff Impact and Market Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing volatility in freight flows due to tariff-related uncertainties, which have led to a pull-forward in demand and subsequent indecision among shippers regarding inventory levels [6][7]. - The long-duration freight recession is indicated by ISM manufacturing readings below 50, exhausting investor sentiment and leading to a downward trajectory in earnings per share (EPS) for transport stocks [6][7]. Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, there is a positive outlook for a recovery cycle in the medium to long term, driven by: - Anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, which historically benefit transport shares [8]. - Increased investments in US manufacturing by major corporations, potentially boosting domestic freight flows [8]. - The potential for re-shoring or nearshoring strategies to enhance US manufacturing and freight volumes [8][9]. Additional Insights - The report notes that the volatile nature of weekly data can obscure trends, and a multi-week perspective is recommended for assessing tariff-related impacts [5][10]. - The Logistics Managers Index indicates upstream inventory expansion but a compression in downstream retail inventories, suggesting a mixed outlook for supply chain dynamics [66]. Conclusion - The transportation sector is currently facing significant challenges due to tariff impacts and changing market dynamics, but there are signs of potential recovery driven by macroeconomic factors and shifts in corporate strategies [6][8][9].