跨资产策略 - 2026 年展望图表集：风险重启之年-Cross-Asset Strategy-2026 Outlook in Charts

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Focus on Risk Assets: The outlook for 2026 indicates a strong year for risk assets, driven by supportive macroeconomic conditions and pro-cyclical policies [10][19]. - AI Financing: AI-related financing is highlighted as a key driver in credit markets, with various types of credit (unsecured, secured, etc.) playing a significant role [2][12]. Core Insights - US Economic Growth: The US is projected to lead the macroeconomic narrative with GDP growth expected at 1.8% year-over-year in 2026, supported by consumer spending and AI-related investments [11][24]. - Equity vs. Credit: A recommendation is made to favor equities over corporate credit, particularly in the US, as equities are expected to outperform due to a pro-cyclical policy mix [3][13]. - Interest Rates: UST 10-year yields are expected to remain range-bound, with a forecast of 4.05% by the end of 2026, while the yield curve is anticipated to steepen [41][44]. Market Dynamics - Global Credit Markets: The issuance of US investment-grade corporate credit is expected to rise, which may lead to underperformance in this asset class [12][58]. - Emerging Markets: Emerging market fixed income is projected to perform well in the first half of 2026, supported by lower UST yields and a weaker USD [48][52]. Sector-Specific Insights - Equities: The S&P 500 is forecasted to reach 7,800 by the end of 2026, driven by earnings strength and favorable policies [40]. - Commodities: A preference for metals, particularly gold, is noted due to supportive macro conditions and strong demand, while energy markets face supply-demand challenges [65][67]. Additional Considerations - Labor Market: The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% by the end of 2026, which may influence Federal Reserve policy decisions [28]. - Inflation Trends: Core PCE inflation is projected to rise to 3.1% in early 2026 before receding to 2.6% by year-end [28]. - Geopolitical Factors: The US is expected to remain the main driver of global economic narratives, with potential impacts from geopolitical tensions and trade dynamics [11][19]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment for 2026 is optimistic for risk assets, particularly equities, with a focus on AI financing and supportive macroeconomic policies. Investors are advised to remain cautious about corporate credit and to consider sector-specific dynamics when making investment decisions.