供应宽松，锌镍走势为何分化

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the nickel and zinc markets, highlighting the supply-demand dynamics and price trends for both metals. Nickel Market Insights - Nickel prices have been declining due to oversupply across the industry chain, particularly in the nickel-iron and stainless steel segments, with prices reaching a three-year low [2] - The demand for stainless steel is weak, exacerbated by the release of high-cost nickel-iron capacity, leading to increased inventory pressures in the nickel market [2] - Indonesia's mining quota was set lower than the previous year, but actual supply has increased, particularly with a 36.4% year-on-year rise in nickel ore imports from the Philippines [4] - The expectation is that nickel prices may stabilize between 100,000 to 110,000 yuan in 2026, with a recommendation to adopt a bearish strategy and look for short-selling opportunities [5] Zinc Market Insights - Global zinc production has increased by 59,000 tons (7.7% year-on-year), primarily from overseas mines, while domestic zinc supply remains ample due to increased imports [6] - China's refined zinc processing fees have rebounded, leading to a high operating rate of over 90% in smelting plants, which has significantly boosted domestic refined zinc supply [6] - The domestic market is expected to face significant inventory pressure, while the international market may experience price support due to supply tightness from overseas smelters [8] - The demand for zinc in 2025 is projected to be stable, with traditional industries like construction and real estate dragging down demand, while the automotive sector provides some incremental growth [9] Price Trends and Recommendations - Short-term price support for zinc may come from seasonal production cuts in northern mines and the opening of export windows for refined zinc [10] - However, the long-term outlook suggests a continued downward trend in zinc prices due to an oversupply situation, with recommendations to sell wide-strike options to capitalize on this trend [10][11] - Investors are advised to monitor overseas processing fee recoveries and smelter restarts, as well as LME inventory levels, which could impact market dynamics [11] Additional Considerations - The conference highlights the importance of keeping an eye on policy changes in resource countries like Indonesia and the Philippines, as these can significantly affect market conditions [3] - The potential for a supply-demand imbalance in the nickel market is emphasized, with a focus on the need for strategic positioning in light of high inventory levels and weak demand [5][10]