大中华区材料行业：钴专家电话会核心要点-Greater China Materials-Cobalt Expert Call Key Takeaways

Key Takeaways from Cobalt Expert Call Industry Overview - The focus of the call was on the cobalt industry, particularly in Greater China, with insights provided by Mr. Liu Lei, a cobalt expert from Mysteel [2][3]. Cobalt Inventory and Consumption - China's cobalt inventory is projected to consume 42,000 tons (kt) in 2025, decreasing to approximately 30kt by the end of 2025. Most inventory is in the form of cobalt metal, excluding about 13kt in bonded warehouses, primarily owned by foreign traders [2]. - Current ex-China cobalt inventory is estimated at 8kt [2]. - Cobalt consumption is expected to grow at an annual rate of 8-10% in the coming years, with a global cobalt deficit projected to be between 25-30kt in 2026 [9]. Demand Projections - Demand for cobalt from lithium cobalt oxide batteries, mainly used in consumer electronics, is estimated at 77kt in 2025, potentially rising to 85kt in 2026 [3]. - Demand from ternary batteries is projected at 85kt for 2025, while demand for high-temperature alloys and super hard alloys is estimated at 6kt and 8kt, respectively [3]. Price Sensitivity - Consumer electronics and high-temperature alloys show low sensitivity to cobalt prices, as lithium cobalt oxide batteries constitute a small portion of their costs. In contrast, electric vehicle (EV) battery demand is sensitive to cobalt prices, with a potential cost increase of Rmb0.6-1.3k for every Rmb100k/t rise in cobalt prices, impacting EV manufacturers' profitability [4]. Market Outlook - Mr. Liu Lei expressed an optimistic outlook, predicting that China's cobalt price could reach Rmb450k/t by year-end, while overseas prices might reach US$26/lb [9]. - Cobalt shipments from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are expected to commence in mid-December, arriving in China by late January or early February, with ongoing inventory digestion during this period [9]. Additional Insights - The price gap between cobalt salts and cobalt metal may incentivize smelting metal into salts, potentially reaching 1-2k tons of metal per month [2]. - The expert's views are independent and may differ from those of Morgan Stanley's Research Department [5]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the cobalt expert call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the cobalt industry in Greater China.