中国材料行业：与上海有色网锂专家交流-China Materials - with SMM Lithium Expert-China Materials

Summary of the 2025 China Materials Tour: Meeting with SMM Lithium Expert Industry Overview - Industry: Lithium - Event: 2025 China Materials Tour - Date of Meeting: November 17, 2025 - Expert: Mr. Zhou Zhicheng, Lithium Analyst at SMM Key Insights 1. Lithium Supply and Demand Dynamics: - Mr. Zhou forecasts that lithium supply will increase from 1.65-1.7 million tons in FY25 to 2.05 million tons in FY26, representing a year-over-year growth of 20.5% to 24% [2] - The market is expected to be largely balanced in FY26, assuming a 50% year-over-year increase in demand from energy storage systems (ESS) [2] 2. Price Monitoring: - A critical price level to monitor is Rmb100,000 per ton, as this is where marginal capacity is incentivized to come online when lithium average selling prices (ASP) stabilize between Rmb90,000 and Rmb100,000 per ton [1][8] - If prices remain above Rmb100,000 per ton, there is potential for prices to reach Rmb150,000 to Rmb200,000 per ton [8] 3. Production Pipeline: - The production pipeline is expected to remain flat month-over-month in December 2025, with a slight decline in the first quarter of 2026 [3] - Continued de-stocking momentum is anticipated in December 2025, with key indicators to watch in the second quarter of 2026 [3] 4. Spodumene Inventory: - Current spodumene inventory is estimated at approximately 80,000 to 90,000 tons LCE at smelters and 200,000 to 300,000 tons at ports, down from 1 million tons in mid-2025 [4] - Newly arrived spodumene cargo in November 2025 suggests an increase in spodumene-based carbonate OEM production for the remainder of the year [4] 5. Processing Fees: - Processing fees for different types of lithium carbonate are as follows: - Spod-based carbonate: ~Rmb18,000-20,000 per ton - Lepidolite-based carbonate: ~Rmb34,000-35,000 per ton - Brine-based carbonate: ~Rmb20,000-30,000 per ton - A downtrend in processing fees is expected in FY26 due to improving yield rates and energy efficiency, although the decline will be milder than in FY25 [5] Additional Considerations - The incremental supply in the next 1-2 years is primarily from brownfield projects, with few greenfield projects expected to come online soon [8] - The utilization rate of spodumene-based smelters is currently around 60% to 70% [4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the meeting with the lithium expert, highlighting the supply-demand dynamics, pricing strategies, production forecasts, and inventory levels within the lithium industry.