2026年中国经济展望走出通缩：2026-27年中国经济展望

Summary of the 2026 China Economic Outlook Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy and its outlook for 2026 and 2027, emphasizing the ongoing battle against deflation and the expected gradual recovery in economic growth. Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth - The nominal GDP growth rate is projected to be 4.1% in 2026, with a slight increase to 4.8% in 2027. This reflects a gradual recovery from the impacts of deflation [3][8][12] - The actual GDP growth rate is expected to decline from 5% in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026 and further to 4.6% in 2027. This indicates a slowdown in economic activity [8][12] - The growth structure remains uneven, with the manufacturing and export sectors showing resilience, while the real estate sector continues to be a significant drag on overall growth [3][14] Inflation and Deflation - Deflation is anticipated to persist throughout 2026, with a potential turning point in 2027 as supply-demand balance improves. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to gradually enter a low-inflation zone [3][4][8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to emerge from deflation in the second half of 2027 [3][4] Policy Measures - The fiscal deficit for 2026 is expected to remain stable compared to 2025, with a slight expansion of 0.5 percentage points of GDP due to quasi-fiscal tools [4][48] - The central bank is likely to implement "symbolic easing," with policy interest rates potentially lowered by 10-20 basis points and reserve requirement ratios by 25-50 basis points [4][48] - The focus of fiscal policy will shift towards public services, including education, healthcare, and social welfare, while maintaining support for technology and infrastructure investments [4][49] Risks and Scenarios - Optimistic scenarios include a reduction in tariffs by the U.S. and a global demand recovery, which could accelerate economic rebalancing and potentially lead to an earlier exit from deflation in the second half of 2026 [4] - Pessimistic scenarios involve escalating trade tensions and a U.S. economic downturn, which could necessitate increased supply-side stimulus, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and deflationary pressures [4] Consumer Behavior and Employment - The consumer market is expected to remain subdued, with household consumption growth slowing from 4.6% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026, before recovering to 4.4% in 2027 as the job market stabilizes [12][14][17] - The employment market is characterized by low confidence, particularly among youth, contributing to a cautious consumer sentiment that favors saving over discretionary spending [15][19] Investment Trends - Fixed capital formation growth is projected to remain weak, with actual growth rates of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027 due to overcapacity and real estate sector challenges [27][28] - Infrastructure investment is expected to be supported by policy-driven financial tools, focusing on urban renewal and public utility upgrades [28][30] Export Resilience - Net exports are anticipated to contribute 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth, maintaining a stable contribution despite a projected slowdown in export growth due to the fading effects of tariff-related front-loading [34][36] AI and Technological Investment - AI is expected to support medium-term economic growth through increased capital expenditure, although productivity gains from AI will take longer to materialize [39][47] Other Important Insights - The report highlights the need for a balanced approach in fiscal policy, with a gradual shift from quantity expansion to quality improvement in public services [49][56] - The emphasis on technology and self-sufficiency remains a priority, with a focus on enhancing supply chain resilience and modernizing industrial standards [56][58] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the economic outlook for China, focusing on growth projections, inflation dynamics, policy measures, and sector-specific trends.