2026年度展望：海外政策&海外宏观

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy and the implications of the 2026 midterm elections under the Trump administration, focusing on fiscal and monetary policies, inflation, and investment opportunities in AI and gold. Core Insights and Arguments - Economic Outlook: The U.S. economy is expected to experience a rebound in the second half of 2026 after a short-term impact from government shutdowns, with fiscal and monetary policies driving expansion in Q3 and rising inflation pressures in Q4 [1][2] - Fiscal Policy: The Trump administration is likely to continue implementing expansionary fiscal policies, including a proposed $2,000 tax credit per person, to stimulate economic growth and garner voter support ahead of the midterm elections [1][8] - Monetary Policy: The new Federal Reserve chair is anticipated to focus more on economic downturn risks, potentially leading to more interest rate cuts than the market expects, with analysts predicting three rate cuts in 2026 [7] - Inflation Trends: Inflation is expected to remain sticky in the first three quarters of 2026, with a potential increase in inflationary pressures as the economy expands in Q4, raising concerns about a second wave of inflation risks [1][11] - Investment Opportunities: Gold and AI are identified as the best investment combinations, each representing half of the recommended portfolio, alongside stocks, commodities, and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds benefiting from loose fiscal and monetary policies [1][2][12] Additional Important Content - Midterm Election Challenges: The 2026 midterm elections pose significant challenges for Trump, with predictions indicating a 70% chance for Democrats to gain control of the House, which could lead to a divided government [3][4] - Trade Policy: Trump may leverage trade policies, including tariffs, to secure votes from key regions while also creating external conflicts to pressure the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates [6] - Market Sentiment: While market sentiment may gradually improve, there are risks of sudden deterioration due to trade policy fluctuations and economic conditions [2] - Asset Performance: The macroeconomic environment is expected to favor lower dollar rates and a weaker dollar index, with gold prices likely to rise and stock and commodity markets benefiting from expansionary policies [13][14] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the U.S. economy, fiscal and monetary policies, and investment strategies as discussed in the conference call.