贵金属分析：白银、铂金与钯金 -当前波动，后续上行-Precious Analyst_ Silver, Platinum and Palladium_ Volatility Now, Upside Later

Summary of Precious Metals Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the precious metals industry, specifically silver, platinum, and palladium, which have seen significant price rallies in 2025, with year-to-date increases of 66%, 65%, and 50% respectively [2][3][6]. Key Points and Arguments Price Rally Drivers - The price increases are attributed to private investor inflows following Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the expectation that these metals will catch up with gold's performance [2][3]. - Speculation regarding US trade policy, including potential tariffs on these metals, has led to pre-positioning of metals in the US, draining liquidity from London, the benchmark pricing hub [3][13]. Market Dynamics - Thinner inventories in London have created conditions for price squeezes, where price movements can be amplified by investor flows [3][13]. - The likelihood of US tariffs or a ban on Russian palladium imports is considered low due to geological constraints on US production capacity, which would likely lead to higher prices without significantly increasing supply [3][23]. Volatility Outlook - Elevated volatility is expected to persist until there is clarity on US trade policies. Once clarity is achieved, metals currently held in the US are likely to return to London, normalizing price action [3][44]. - The medium-term outlook for silver, platinum, and palladium is upward if private investors continue to view these metals as higher-beta alternatives to gold [3][44]. Industrial Demand and Risks - Current industrial demand for platinum and palladium is uncertain, with potential pressures from the automotive sector, which relies heavily on these metals for catalytic converters [3][45]. - China's rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to erode demand for platinum group metals (PGMs) while increasing scrap supply from retired internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles [3][48]. Strategic Considerations - The report highlights the concentration of platinum and palladium supply in Southern Africa and Russia, which poses significant disruption risks [3][29]. - Strategic stockpiling and investment to increase US mining utilization are suggested as more plausible policy responses than imposing tariffs [3][34]. ETF and Speculative Demand - ETF flows and speculative positioning are identified as key drivers of price movements in the precious metals market [3][52]. - The report notes that while other precious metals may deliver larger upside potential, gold remains the most durable investment due to its historical role as a store of wealth [3][49]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic for precious metals, with potential for upward price movements if investor sentiment remains strong and industrial demand stabilizes [3][44][52].