美联储降息预期下降，商品有何影响

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations: The divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December has increased, with dovish officials citing a weak labor market as support for cuts, while hawkish officials express concerns over inflation rebound, leading to increased policy uncertainty [1][3][4][5] - Domestic Macro Economy: The LPR remained unchanged in November, indicating that the central bank believes there is still room for monetary policy, but the marginal efficiency is declining, making further easing unlikely this year [1][7][8] Commodity Market Insights - Black Commodities: There is a significant divergence in the performance of black commodities. Coal and coke prices have dropped sharply, with coking coal down 9% and coke over 4%. In contrast, iron ore has shown relative strength, increasing by approximately 1.2% [1][9][12] - Iron Ore Market: Iron ore has performed better than other commodities recently, but with increased shipments and port arrivals, supply-demand conflicts may intensify, leading to potential price volatility in the short term [1][12] - Precious Metals: The precious metals market remains weak, with the gold-silver ratio hovering around 81. Factors such as internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have limited upward momentum for gold [1][15] - Oil Market: The oil market is under pressure from a mid-term supply surplus, with IEA predicting continued oversupply in global oil markets this year and next, leading to a bearish outlook for oil prices [1][20] Specific Commodity Analysis - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market is facing increased supply due to domestic production recovery and rising imports from Mongolia. The coke market is also under pressure, with limited price increases expected [1][13][14] - Steel Market: The rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent data showing improvements in both supply and demand, although overall market sentiment remains cautious [1][10][11] - Nonferrous Metals: The nonferrous metals market is generally weak, with copper prices expected to remain volatile but high. The aluminum market faces seasonal inventory increases, limiting upward price potential [1][17] - New Energy Materials: The polysilicon and industrial silicon markets are weak, while lithium carbonate prices have risen unexpectedly due to improved fundamentals, although risks of price declines remain [1][18][19] Additional Insights - Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment is cautious due to mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties, impacting various commodity prices and investor strategies [1][6][17] - Future Expectations: The outlook for many commodities remains uncertain, with potential for volatility driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][20][21][25]