Grupo Supervielle(US:SUPV)2025-11-26 15:00Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net loss of ARS 50.3 billion in Q3 2025, significantly impacted by high real interest rates and tight monetary policy [4][5] - Net financial income declined by 43% sequentially, with the peso NIM falling to 11.7% and total NIM to 10.8%, down 1,100 and 1,000 basis points respectively [7][9] - The CET1 ratio reached 13.2% at quarter end and improved to 14.5% in October, supported by lower deferred asset tax deductions [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan growth was solid, up 8% in real terms, primarily driven by the corporate segment, while retail lending declined slightly due to tightened origination standards [5] - The NPL ratio rose to 3.9%, mainly due to the retail segment, although the NPL share of individuals remains below the retail loan share [5][56] - Deposit growth was strong, increasing by 15% quarter on quarter in real terms and over 40% year on year, with dollar deposits reaching a record high, up 31% sequentially [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates real loan growth of 35%-40% for the full year 2025, led by corporate lending, with retail gradually resuming growth as disposable income improves [9] - Deposits are forecasted to grow 30%-35%, with further share gains in US dollar-denominated deposit balances [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on controlling costs, with a 2% decline quarter on quarter and a 12% decline year to date in real terms [6] - Strategic initiatives include scaling the super app, enhancing customer engagement, and expanding cross-sell opportunities, particularly at Invertir Online [6] - The company is committed to returning to profitability and delivering long-term value, supported by the expected easing of monetary conditions [3][4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about post-election stabilization, with improving confidence and declining interest rates [4] - The company expects a gradual improvement in asset quality, with NPLs projected to peak in Q4 2025 [56] - Future ROE is anticipated to range between negative 5% and 0% for the full year, with expectations for improvement in 2026 as economic conditions normalize [10][41] Other Important Information - The political landscape in Argentina is changing, with a shift towards a more fragmented political environment, which may impact economic reforms [12][18] - The company is open to strategic alliances and partnerships to enhance its competitive position in the market [53] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term growth expectations and segment growth - The company guided for real loan growth of 35%-40% this year, with expectations for corporate lending to lead growth and retail to pick up later [30][31] Question: ROE expectations for next year - The company expects ROE to be in the high single digits or low double digits for next year, depending on the pace of economic recovery [41][42] Question: Balance between corporate and retail loans - The company aims for a balanced loan mix, with corporate loans currently exceeding 50% of the mix, expecting retail to catch up as conditions improve [44][46] Question: Asset quality dynamics and NPL expectations - The company anticipates that NPLs may peak in Q4 2025, with a coverage ratio expected to remain between 110-120% [55][57] Question: Liquidity conditions and growth constraints - The company sees a rebound in money demand post-elections, which should support deposit growth and mitigate liquidity constraints [62]