Grupo Financiero Galicia(GGAL) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - Grupo Financiero Galicia reported a net loss of ARS 87.7 billion for the quarter, primarily due to losses from Banco Galicia, NaranjaX, and Galicia Seguros, partially offset by profits from Galicia Asset Management [5] - The net operating income decreased by 23%, with net interest income down by 10% and loan loss provisions up by 26% [7][9] - The return on equity (ROE) for the quarter was -4.7%, while the accumulated annualized figures for the fiscal year reached 4.7% [5][12] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - Banco Galicia's results included ARS 101.1 billion in extraordinary expenses, negatively impacted by increased cost of risk and a decrease in financial margin due to high interest rates [6] - Peso-denominated loans to the private sector averaged ARS 79.3 trillion, showing a 9.7% quarterly increase and a 105.4% year-over-year increase [4] - Private sector dollar-denominated loans amounted to $18.3 billion, recording a 15.8% quarterly growth and a 153.4% annual increase [4] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The Argentine economy recorded a 5% year-over-year increase in economic activity during September, with a primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP [2] - The exchange rate averaged ARS 1,400 per dollar in September 2025, reflecting a 15.6% devaluation compared to June 2025 [3] - Private sector deposits in pesos averaged ARS 94.1 trillion in September, increasing by 5.6% during the quarter and 53% year-over-year [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to improve profitability in the fourth quarter and next year, with expectations of an ROE in the low teens range for 2026 [15][16] - The focus will be on maintaining liquidity and solvency metrics while navigating high political effects and monetary volatility [12][13] - The company anticipates a peak in non-performing loans (NPLs) around March next year, with expectations of improvement thereafter [17][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that margins were low due to high interest rates but are expected to improve in November and December [15][67] - The company is optimistic about the economic environment post-elections, with expectations of increased private investments in sectors like oil and gas, mining, and agriculture [37][39] - Management expressed confidence in maintaining a healthy capital ratio and does not foresee constraints on loan growth [24][95] Other Important Information - The restructuring expenses associated with the merger with HSBC Argentina amounted to ARS 105.3 billion [5] - The bank's estimated market share of loans to the private sector was 14.8%, and the market share of deposits was 16.4% [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital ratio and origination - Analyst inquired about the capital ratio and how it relates to origination and risk-taking levels, especially in light of expected peaks in NPLs [20][21] Answer: Capital management - Management explained that the capital ratio was impacted by bond valuations but is now stabilizing, with a minimum appetite to operate at 13% [23][24] Question: Long-term expectations for lending - Analyst asked about lending expectations for the next year and potential private investments in Argentina [32][33] Answer: Growth projections - Management projected a 25% growth in lending in real terms, with a focus on commercial lending and consumer lending improvements [36][37] Question: Asset quality and NPLs - Analyst sought clarification on asset quality dynamics and expected NPL levels [73] Answer: NPL expectations - Management indicated that NPLs are expected to peak around March next year, with a target range of 4-4.5% by the end of 2026 [78] Question: Integration costs from HSBC acquisition - Analyst asked about any remaining integration costs from the HSBC acquisition [82] Answer: Integration costs - Management confirmed that most restructuring costs were booked in the third quarter, with only minor costs expected in the fourth quarter [83] Question: Economic assumptions for inflation and interest rates - Analyst requested economic assumptions for inflation and interest rates for the upcoming year [90] Answer: Economic outlook - Management provided estimates of 30% inflation for this year and 18% for next year, with GDP growth projected at 4% for this year and 3.7% for next year [90]