Summary of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - Company: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) - Industry: Logistics and Express Delivery Key Points Discussed 1. Industry Outlook - ZTO expects the industry order volume to grow at a high-single-digit percentage in 2026, with ZTO anticipated to outperform the industry [1] - For 4Q25, ZTO expects profits to stabilize year-over-year, driven by an increase in Average Selling Price (ASP) due to anti-involution policies [1] 2. Competitive Landscape - The industry is shifting towards high-quality development, benefiting leading players like ZTO due to cost advantages and a more high-quality customer base [2] - ZTO's market share in reverse parcels is approximately 23%, with the top three players holding 70% of the market [2] 3. Automation and Cost Efficiency - ZTO has over 800 outlets utilizing autonomous vehicles, with more than 3,000 vehicles in operation [3] - The deployment of autonomous vehicles is expected to reduce the cost per parcel by 7-8 cents, with each vehicle capable of carrying hundreds of parcels and making three trips a day [3] - The price of autonomous vehicles has decreased by 30-40% over the past year [3] 4. Shareholder Returns - ZTO has distributed RMB 16 billion to shareholders over the past 1.5 years, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 40% [4] - There is potential for increased dividends and buybacks in the future due to decreasing capital expenditures [4] 5. ASP Trends - The ASP increased by 4 cents month-over-month in August and by 3 cents in September, with the upward trend continuing into 4Q [15] - The number of low-value parcels has decreased due to the anti-involution policy, leading to a healthier parcel structure [15] 6. Capacity and Volume - The average daily capacity is currently 150 million parcels, with a utilization rate of approximately 80% [11] - During peak season next year, capacity can reach 160-170 million parcels [11] - ZTO handles approximately 7 million reverse parcels daily in 4Q, with around 30 million daily reverse parcels across major eCommerce platforms [10] 7. Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for ZTO are as follows: - 2025E: RMB 49.037 billion - 2026E: RMB 54.995 billion - 2027E: RMB 59.290 billion [12] - The company expects a gross margin of 25.8% in 2025E and 26.4% in 2026E [12] 8. Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on ZTO with a 12-month price target of US$23/HK$179, indicating an upside potential of 12% [4][16] - Key risks include slower-than-expected industry growth, intensified competition, and execution risks in business operations [14] Additional Insights - The implementation of anti-involution policies is strong, which may impact the overall market dynamics [5] - The focus on network healthiness and income levels of couriers is being emphasized by regulators [9] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding ZTO Express, highlighting the company's strategic outlook, competitive advantages, and financial projections.
中通快递-互联网调研纪要：行业环境改善，头部企业受益于价格竞争趋稳；买入