亚太经济 -从科技到非科技领域：复苏范围扩大-Asia Economics From Tech to Non-tech – Recovery to broaden out

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Asia Pacific economic outlook, particularly the transition from technology-driven growth to a broader recovery encompassing non-tech sectors [3][5][20]. Key Points and Arguments 1. External Demand Recovery: Easing trade tensions and recovering US domestic demand are expected to support external demand recovery, particularly benefiting non-tech exports [5][20]. 2. US GDP Growth Forecast: The US real GDP growth is forecasted to recover from -0.2% in Q4 2025 to 2.1% in Q4 2026, indicating a positive trend [6]. 3. Asia's GDP Growth: Asia's real GDP growth is projected to increase from 4.3% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, with specific country forecasts showing varied growth rates [10][12]. 4. Nominal GDP Growth: Asia ex China's nominal GDP growth is expected to accelerate, while China's nominal GDP growth is anticipated to recover modestly but remain subdued [14][16]. 5. Exports Performance: Asia's tech exports have been strong, but non-tech exports have remained flat since Q4 2024, indicating a need for diversification in export strategies [17][20]. 6. Capex Momentum: An expected recovery in non-tech exports and earlier rate cuts are anticipated to revive capital expenditure (capex) momentum, with gross fixed investment projected to grow from 2.0% in Q3 2025 to 4.4% in Q4 2026 [24][25]. 7. Labor Market Conditions: A turnaround in exports and capex is expected to improve labor market conditions and discretionary consumption, which have been negatively impacted by weaker labor markets and higher real rates [27]. 8. China's Economic Outlook: Deflationary pressures in China are expected to ease, with a clear exit from deflation projected for 2027, supported by infrastructure investments and a recovery in non-tech exports [31][32]. 9. India's Economic Growth: India is forecasted to have the strongest nominal GDP growth in Asia, with a projected growth rate of 12.0% in 2026, driven by various easing measures and a potential trade deal with the US [36][39][40]. 10. Japan's Fiscal Policy: Japan's expansionary fiscal policy is expected to support a gradual rise in core CPI, with fiscal concerns likely overplayed due to a healthy starting point of the fiscal deficit [41][45]. Additional Important Insights - Risks to Outlook: Potential risks include a mild recession in the US affecting Asia's non-tech exports and the possibility of accelerated rebalancing efforts in China leading to better nominal GDP growth outcomes [47]. - Inflation and Rate Cuts: The outlook suggests more room for central banks to cut rates than what the market is currently pricing, with inflation forecasts being lower than consensus due to persistent disinflationary pressures from China [46]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and forecasts presented during the conference call, highlighting the economic outlook for the Asia Pacific region and specific countries within it.