中国及香港股票策略-2026 年展望：主题、风险、政策灵活性及 2026 年一季度首选标的-China & HK Equity Strategy_ 2026 Outlook_ Themes, risks, policy optionality and preferred picks for 1Q26

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China & Hong Kong equity market with a specific outlook for 2026 and investment strategies for 1Q26 [2][5][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - Constructive Stance: The report maintains a positive outlook on MXCN/CSI300, predicting a further rally in 2026 with targets set at 100 for MXCN, 5,200 for CSI300, and 16,000 for MXHK, reflecting growth rates of 15%, 15%, and 9% year-on-year respectively [2][7][8][9]. - Investment Themes: Four key investment themes for 2026 are highlighted: 1. Anti-involution: Expected to accelerate post-March NPC, improving margins and return on equity (ROE) [5][6]. 2. AI Infrastructure Growth: Anticipated growth in global AI infrastructure capex will benefit localization plays in China [5][6]. 3. Global Macro Support: Positive macroeconomic conditions, including easing fiscal and monetary policies in developed markets, are expected to boost overseas sales [5][6]. 4. K-shaped Recovery: Consumption recovery is expected to favor food & beverage and premium luxury sectors, while mid-tier consumption may suffer [5][6]. Risks Identified - Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing tensions between the US and China, particularly ahead of the US mid-term elections, pose risks to market stability [5][6]. - Earnings Consensus Risks: The report notes a potential decline in consensus EPS growth for MXCN from approximately 15% to 9% due to intense competition in quick commerce platforms [5][6]. - Property Market Concerns: Reports of softening luxury sales and price declines in mainland China may trigger policy changes, including relaxation of home purchase restrictions in prime districts [5][6]. Sector Recommendations - Overweight (OW): Communication Services, IT, Materials, and Staples sectors are recommended for investment [6][11][12]. - Underweight (UW): Energy and Utilities sectors are advised against [6][11][12]. - Top Picks for 1Q26: Notable stocks include Baidu, NetEase, Midea, MIXUE, PDD, Pop Mart, Trip.com, Tingyi, Futu, Innovent, CATL, and COLI [6][13][15]. Valuation and Earnings Insights - Valuation Normalization: Since September 2024, MXCN/CSI300 has shown a return of 29%/30% in USD terms, indicating a recovery from previous valuation discounts [20][22]. - Earnings Growth: The report highlights a broadening recovery in earnings across various sectors, despite weak headline EPS growth at the index level [42][44]. Additional Important Points - EPS Revision Trends: The breadth of EPS revisions has improved significantly, indicating a potential for recovery in earnings [58][59]. - Market Under-Ownership: The report emphasizes that China equity remains under-owned both domestically and internationally, suggesting potential for increased allocation [5][6]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China & Hong Kong equity markets.