2026-27 年基础金属与贵金属展望：再创新高-Base & Precious Metals Outlook 2026_27_ Even greater heights. Thu Nov 20 2025

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Base & Precious Metals Outlook 2026/27 Industry Overview - Industry Focus: Base and Precious Metals - Key Analysts: Gregory C. Shearer, Ali A. Ibrahim, Ananyashree Gupta, Ladislav Jankovic Core Points and Arguments Base Metals Outlook - Copper: - Bullish outlook with prices expected to rise towards $12,500/mt in 1H26 and average $12,075/mt for 2026 due to acute supply disruptions and a forecasted ~330 kmt deficit in the refined copper market [3][14][16] - Chinese demand growth is projected to slow to 2.5% yoy in 2026, but the ability to wait out higher prices is limited, leading to a bullish backdrop for LME copper prices [16][39] - Aluminum: - Prices forecasted to reach $3,000/mt in 1H26, driven by higher copper prices and a balanced market, but expected supply growth from Indonesia may weigh on prices later in 2026 [3][9] - Zinc: - Anticipated to struggle with prices falling towards $2,650/mt by 4Q26 due to a growing oversupply and stagnant global demand growth of 1% yoy [3][9] - Nickel: - Expected to remain rangebound amid a multi-year surplus, with prices likely below $15,000/mt unless significant policy changes in Indonesia occur [3][9] Precious Metals Outlook - Gold: - Long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged, with prices projected to reach $5,000/oz by 4Q26, supported by robust demand from official reserves and investor diversification [3][12] - Silver: - Prices expected to rise towards $58/oz by 4Q26, despite weakening industrial demand, with tariff uncertainties posing risks for volatility [3][12] - Platinum: - Prices forecasted to average $1,670/oz in 2026, with a deficit market expected to support prices before supply rebalancing occurs [3][12] - Palladium: - Short-term price support due to tariff risks, but longer-term prices expected to decline as demand rolls over [3][12] Volatility and Trading Strategies - Precious Metals Volatility: - Elevated volatility in precious metals, with proposed trading structures to capture gold upside while minimizing capital deployment [3][12] Additional Important Insights - Data Center Demand: - Significant upside risk to copper demand from data center growth, with projections of 122 GW of global capacity installations from 2026-2030, translating to approximately 475 kmt of copper demand in 2026 [43][50] - Supply Disruptions: - Ongoing supply disruptions from various mines are expected to tighten the copper market, with a forecasted mine supply growth of only 1.4% in 2026 [20][26] - Global Inventory Dynamics: - Dislocated global inventory and supply disruptions are key factors driving the bullish outlook for copper prices, with significant inventory build-up in the US impacting market dynamics [15][37] This comprehensive outlook provides a detailed analysis of the base and precious metals markets, highlighting key trends, forecasts, and potential investment opportunities.