全球股票策略 2026 年全球股票展望-Global Equity Strategy_ 2026 Global Equity Outlook. Wed Nov 26 2025

Summary of J.P. Morgan Global Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - Industry Focus: Global Equities, particularly driven by the AI sector and its implications across various industries including Technology, Utilities, Banks, Health Care, and Logistics [2][20][23] - Company: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, a leading investment bank providing insights on market strategies and equity outlooks [3][5] Core Insights and Arguments Global Equity Outlook - Positive Sentiment: Expectation of double-digit gains in global equities across Developed Markets (DM) and Emerging Markets (EM) due to robust earnings growth, lower interest rates, and declining policy headwinds [2][20] - U.S. as Growth Engine: The U.S. economy is anticipated to remain the world's growth engine, driven by an AI supercycle leading to record capital expenditures (capex) and rapid earnings expansion [2][20][23] - AI Investment: Corporates and governments are racing to invest in AI, motivated by productivity gains and the fear of obsolescence, creating a polarized K-shaped economy with distinct winners and losers [2][20][21] Earnings and Market Projections - S&P 500 Price Target: Projected price target of 7,500 by year-end 2026, with expected earnings growth of 13-15% for 2026 and 2027 [6][22][28] - Earnings Growth: Anticipated EPS of $315 for 2026 and $355 for 2027, surpassing consensus estimates [6][22][28] - Market Concentration: AI-related stocks are increasingly dominating the S&P 500, with the top 30 AI stocks accounting for 44% of the index's market cap [26][39] Regional Insights - Eurozone: Expected earnings growth of over 13% in 2026, supported by fiscal stimulus and improved credit conditions [6][20] - Japan: Anticipated benefits from corporate reforms and increased capital investment, with a focus on unlocking excess cash [6][20] - Emerging Markets: Positioned for robust performance due to lower interest rates, attractive valuations, and improvements in corporate governance [13][20] Important but Overlooked Content - AI's Impact on Economy: The AI sector is expected to exacerbate the K-shaped recovery, leading to increased market concentration and a "winner-takes-all" dynamic [20][26] - Investor Sentiment: Broad sentiment measures are likely to experience sharp swings, despite solid underlying trends and fundamentals [2][20] - Sector Rotation: A shift is expected from peripheral markets (Italy, Spain) to core markets (France) within the Eurozone, indicating potential investment opportunities [6][20] Sector and Style Recommendations - Sector Preferences: Favorable outlook on Technology, Utilities, and Defense sectors, while remaining cautious on Financials and Health Care [30][36] - Style Views: Continued dominance of Quality Growth and Momentum stocks, with sensitivity to monetary policy shifts [36][30] Conclusion - Investment Strategy: J.P. Morgan emphasizes a selective approach to investment, focusing on sectors and companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI supercycle and broader economic trends [20][30][36]