中国与香港股票策略 2026 年展望：2026 年一季度的主题、风险、政策灵活性与优选标的-China & HK Equity Strategy_ 2026 Outlook_ Themes, risks, policy optionality and preferred picks for 1Q26. Wed Nov 26 2025

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The report focuses on the China & Hong Kong equity market with a specific outlook for 2026 and investment strategies for 1Q26 [2][5]. Core Themes and Arguments 1. Constructive Stance on MXCN/CSI300: The report maintains a positive outlook on MXCN and CSI300, predicting further rallies in 2026 with targets set at 100 for MXCN, 5,200 for CSI300, and 16,000 for MXHK, based on consensus EPS estimates [2][7][9]. 2. Investment Themes for 2026: - Anti-involution: Expected to accelerate post-March NPC, improving margins and ROE for MXCN/CSI300 [5]. - AI Infrastructure Growth: Strong global capex in AI is anticipated to boost demand for computing power and localization plays in China [5]. - Global Macro Support: Positive macroeconomic conditions, including easing fiscal and monetary policies in developed markets, are expected to enhance overseas sales [5]. - K-shaped Recovery in Consumption: This will favor food & beverage and premium luxury sectors while negatively impacting mid-tier consumption [5]. 3. Risks Identified: - Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing tensions between the US and China, particularly ahead of the US mid-term elections, and rising tensions with Japan [5]. - Consensus EPS Growth Concerns: Potential downward revisions in consensus EPS growth for MXCN from approximately 15% to 9% due to intense competition in quick commerce platforms [5]. - Property Market Weakness: Reports of declining luxury sales and price drops in mainland China may trigger policy changes [5]. Sector Recommendations and Top Picks 1. Under-owned China Equity: The report suggests that China equity is under-owned both domestically and internationally, indicating potential for increased allocation [6]. 2. Sector Preferences: - Overweight (OW): Communication Services, IT, Materials, and Staples. - Underweight (UW): Energy and Utilities [6][12]. 3. Top Picks for 1Q26: - China: Baidu, NetEase, Midea, MIXUE, PDD, Pop Mart, Trip.com, Tingyi, Futu, Innovent, CATL, COLI. - Hong Kong: AIA, HKEX, Futu, Galaxy, MGM China, Techtronic, Link REITs, MTR, China State Construction International [6][13][15]. Important but Overlooked Content - Valuation Normalization: Since September 2024, MXCN/CSI300 has shown a return of 29%/30% in USD terms, indicating a shift from a valuation discount to a more favorable investment narrative [20]. - EPS Recovery: The report highlights a broadening recovery in earnings across various sectors despite weak headline EPS growth, with significant recoveries noted in Healthcare, IT, and Communication Services [41][42]. - Quantitative Macro Indicator (QMI): The JPM China QMI indicates an expansion phase, suggesting positive momentum in the market [47]. Conclusion The report presents a comprehensive outlook for the China and Hong Kong equity markets, emphasizing potential growth areas, sector preferences, and the importance of monitoring geopolitical risks and market dynamics as 2026 approaches.