2026 年新兴市场展望与策略：不要停止相信-Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy for 2026_ Don’t stop believing. Tue Nov 25 2025

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy for 2026 Industry Overview - Industry: Emerging Markets (EM) - Focus: The report outlines the outlook for EM fixed income, local markets, sovereign credit, and corporate credit for the year 2026. Key Themes and Insights 1. Macroeconomic Stability: Lower macro volatility is expected to support EM local markets in 2026, with a forecast of stable growth and inflation rates. EM (ex-China) GDP growth is projected at 3.3%, while China’s growth is forecasted to decline to 4.4% from 4.9% in 2025 [17][18][19] 2. Inflation and Monetary Policy: EM headline inflation is anticipated to stabilize around 3.2% in 2026, following a decline in 2025. Central banks are expected to implement further rate cuts, particularly in high-yielding countries, but the pace of cuts will moderate [19][20] 3. Investment Environment: The report emphasizes a positive outlook for EM fixed income investments, suggesting that ongoing inflows into EM funds are likely due to historically low valuations and a shift away from a prolonged bear market in EM FX [20][21] 4. Local Markets Strategy: J.P. Morgan maintains an "Overweight" (OW) stance on EM FX and rates, with a focus on carry-oriented portfolios. The report highlights a bullish trend for EM FX against the USD, driven by rich USD valuations and a shift in global asset positioning [21][22] 5. Sovereign Credit Outlook: The EMBIGD spread is expected to end 2026 at 280 basis points, with a modest spread outperformance anticipated. High-yielding sovereigns are favored due to their better fiscal trajectories [23][24] 6. Corporate Credit Outlook: The CEMBI BD spread target for the end of 2026 is set at 210 basis points, with a forecasted return of +4.2%. The report indicates stable corporate fundamentals and a below-average default rate of 3% [24][33] 7. Technical Factors: Positive inflows into EM dedicated bond funds are projected at $40-50 billion for 2026, with a supportive backdrop for EM bond fund flows due to favorable FX returns and lower macro volatility [25][34] 8. Regional Growth Dynamics: The report notes that EMAX (Emerging Asia ex China and India) has shown resilience despite high tariffs, with growth expected to remain stable. Latam is projected to see accelerated growth amid significant political transformations [26][27][49] 9. Political Risks: Upcoming elections in key EM countries (Brazil, Hungary, Israel, Colombia, and Peru) are highlighted as significant for market dynamics in 2026, with potential impacts on fiscal policies and economic stability [27][28] 10. Risks to the Outlook: Two main risk scenarios are identified: a potential US economic slowdown leading to tighter monetary policy, and a collapse in US equity prices affecting EM markets. The report suggests that while drawdowns may occur, the overall impact on EM fixed income should be contained unless a recession is realized [48][49] Additional Important Insights - AI and Tech Influence: The report discusses the impact of AI-driven tech strength on EM exports, particularly in EMAX, where tech accounts for a significant portion of industrial production gains. However, growth in tech imports from Asia is expected to slow down [55] - Fiscal Policy Considerations: The need for supportive fiscal policies is emphasized, especially if domestic demand does not recover in EM regions [51] This comprehensive outlook provides a detailed analysis of the expected trends and dynamics in emerging markets for 2026, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.