中东欧、中东与非洲 2026 年展望：在正确的领域寻找增长-CEEMEA 2026 Year Ahead_ Looking for growth in All the Right Places. Wed Nov 26 2025

Summary of J.P. Morgan CEEMEA 2026 Year Ahead Conference Call Industry Overview - Focus: CEEMEA (Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa) and South Africa equity strategy - Key Trends: Weaker USD, stronger gold, weaker oil, resilient global growth, and easing from emerging market (EM) central banks expected to continue into 2026 [9][10] Core Insights - Valuation Concerns: Many global assets are at or near post-GFC highs, raising macro concerns for CEEMEA strategy. However, key markets like UAE, South Africa, and Poland are trading at discounts to long-term averages [9][10] - Oil Price Forecast: J.P. Morgan forecasts lower oil prices in 2026, which could negatively impact MENA equities. Brent crude is expected to average $58 in 2026 [10][24] - Geopolitical Risks: Trade tensions are anticipated to rise in 2026, particularly between the US and China, which could affect CEEMEA markets [10][15] - Investment Recommendations: - Overweight (OW): South Africa, Greece, Poland, and UAE - Neutral (N): Saudi Arabia and Türkiye [9][10][13] Key Market Calls - MSCI EMEA Target: - Base case target for end-2026 is 285, representing a 16% upside - Bull case target is 325 (32% upside), while bear case target is 210 (16% downside) [12][17] - Earnings Growth: Earnings assumptions for MSCI EMEA are 21% for 2026 and 11% for 2027 in USD terms, aligning with consensus [12] Sector-Specific Insights - Saudi Arabia: - Current headwinds include low oil prices, high breakeven costs, and tight domestic liquidity. The market is expected to remain under pressure until at least 2H26 [24][35] - Banks are expected to outperform due to increased lending needs and favorable funding conditions from anticipated Fed cuts [25] - South Africa: Strong GDP growth and a new CPI target of 3% are expected to support the ZAR and local equities [9][10] - UAE: Identified as the best long-term growth story in CEEMEA, with strong fundamentals supporting its market position [10][19] Top Investment Picks - CEEMEA Strategy Top 10 Stocks: - UAE: ADCB, Aldar, Emaar Properties - EM Europe: OTP, Piraeus Bank - South Africa: Nedbank, Capitec, Impala, Naspers, Anglogold [13][19] Risks to Consider - Market Risks: - Lower oil prices could adversely affect MENA markets - Potential reversal of gold/PGM rally - Trade wars and geopolitical tensions could impact investor sentiment [15] - Valuation Risks: High valuations across many asset classes could lead to corrections [15] Conclusion - The CEEMEA region presents both opportunities and risks as it navigates through a complex macroeconomic landscape. Key markets like South Africa and UAE are positioned favorably, while Saudi Arabia faces significant challenges that could hinder performance in the near term. Investors are advised to remain cautious and selective in their approach to this region.