美国固定收益市场 2026 年展望-U.S. Fixed Income Markets Outlook_ 2026 Outlook

Summary of U.S. Fixed Income Markets 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - Industry: U.S. Fixed Income Markets - Company: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Key Economic Forecasts - Real GDP Growth: Projected at 1.8% for 2026, consistent with 2025 pace [5][19] - Core PCE Inflation: Expected to moderate slightly to 2.7% [19][28] - Unemployment Rate: Anticipated to remain stable at 4.3% [19][25] Interest Rate Expectations - Federal Reserve Actions: Anticipated 50 basis points (bp) cuts in January and April 2026 [5][19] - Treasury Yields: - 10-year yields expected to rise to 4.25% in Q2 2026 and 4.35% by Q4 2026 [6][19] - 2-year yields projected to remain around 3.51% through mid-year, rising to 3.85% by year-end [18][19] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - Supply/Demand Imbalance: Improvement expected in the Treasury market, but spread market technicals may worsen [19][41] - High-Grade Corporate Spreads: Forecasted to widen by 15bp to 110bp by year-end 2026 due to heavy supply and weakening credit fundamentals [19][44] - High-Yield Bond Spreads: Expected to widen by 30bp to 375bp, with default rates projected at 1.75% [15][19] Sector-Specific Insights - Agency MBS: Anticipated to provide modest excess returns despite a projected 5bp widening in OAS [19][28] - ABS Market: Expected to remain resilient with stable credit and slightly tighter spreads [11][12] - CLOs: Targeting new issue spreads to widen to 130bp, driven by waning exuberance and late-cycle defensiveness [15][46] Risks and Considerations - Labor Market Risks: Elevated risks of recession due to cyclical weakening in the labor market [29][30] - Inflation Risks: Core inflation expected to remain sticky, complicating the Fed's easing strategy [28][30] - Regulatory Risks: Potential impacts from financial deregulation and changes in capital frameworks [38][39] Technical Analysis - Yield Curve: Expected to remain range-bound with risks of flattening as the Fed goes on hold [6][19] - Volatility: Anticipated decline in shorter-expiry volatility, with longer-expiry volatility expected to increase [37][42] Conclusion - The outlook for the U.S. Fixed Income Markets in 2026 suggests a complex interplay of growth, inflation, and interest rate dynamics, with a focus on maintaining a defensive portfolio amidst macroeconomic uncertainties. The anticipated changes in yields and spreads across various sectors highlight the need for strategic positioning in the evolving market landscape.