技术策略 2026 年展望：押注晴天，仍备雨伞-Technical Strategy_ 2026 Year-Ahead Outlook_ Betting on Sunshine, Still Packing an Umbrella. Thu Nov 20 2025

Summary of J.P. Morgan's 2026 Year-Ahead Outlook Industry Overview - The report discusses the macroeconomic environment and market dynamics as they relate to various asset classes, particularly focusing on the U.S. Treasury yield curve, equities, and commodities [5][7][33]. Key Points and Arguments Market Dynamics - Markets are expected to face a multi-modal macro risk distribution, with a base-case scenario suggesting a shift from a central mode to a right-side distribution indicating improving growth expectations but with increased overheating risks [5][7]. - The left-side tail risk, representing recession, is acknowledged but considered less likely compared to the overheating scenario [5][7][26]. Treasury Yields - Front-end Treasury yields are anticipated to remain in a bullish range, while the belly and long end of the curve may face bearish pressure due to risk-on trends and widening inflation breakevens [5][33]. - The 2-year note is highlighted as a key indicator for market expectations, currently positioned near critical levels around 3.50% [8][12][35]. Equities - Large-cap U.S. stocks are expected to lead a bullish trend into the first half of 2026, with higher volatility and potential drawdowns anticipated [5][13]. - Chinese equity indexes, such as the CSI 300 and Hang Seng, are noted for their bullish patterns, suggesting potential for reaching 2021 cycle highs [15][17]. Commodities - Base metals are expected to catch up to the strong performance of precious metals, with a longer-term bullish trend anticipated [5][21]. - Crude oil prices are expected to remain range-bound, contrasting with the bullish outlook for base metals [5][21]. Currency Outlook - A stronger U.S. dollar is anticipated in early 2026, with the potential for simultaneous strength in the AUD/USD pair, which is historically an outlier [5][16]. Inflation and TIPS Breakevens - The report suggests that bullish trends in base metals could lead to upward pressure on 10-year TIPS breakevens, which are expected to widen towards the 240-250 basis points range [20][66]. - A gradual rally in front-end yields is expected, with TIPS breakevens potentially widening if inflation pressures increase [20][66]. Risk Scenarios - The report outlines a left-side tail risk scenario where recession could lead to predictable market trends, but this is viewed as a lower probability outcome [26][68]. - A more aggressive bullish scenario for the 2-year note could indicate a recession outcome, leading to a significant break in consumption and labor data [26][40]. Other Important Content - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key levels, trends, and patterns in various markets to react to potential regime changes [7][12]. - The technical setup for the 2-year note suggests a potential target near 1.75% if bearish scenarios materialize [40][46]. - The report also discusses the potential for a steepening of the yield curve, particularly in the 2s/5s and 2s/10s curves, as markets navigate through 2026 [54][60]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the expected market conditions and investment strategies for 2026, highlighting both opportunities and risks across various asset classes.