2026年度展望：财政政策&货币政策

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the fiscal and monetary policies in China for the year 2026, focusing on the implications for the economy and financial markets. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a projected growth rate of approximately 1.9% in broad fiscal expenditure, despite a slight decline due to high base effects. Actual physical broad fiscal expenditure is anticipated to increase by over 1 trillion [1][4][3] 2. Deficit and GDP Growth - The narrow deficit rate is projected to remain around 4%, with nominal GDP growth needing to reach 4.9% to maintain this rate. The actual nominal GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 was about 4.1%, indicating potential discrepancies [3][4] 3. Monetary Policy Goals - The monetary policy for 2026 will focus on stabilizing growth, promoting inflation, and preventing risks. Expected actions include 1-2 interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [8][9][11] 4. Banking Sector Challenges - The net interest margin for banks has been under pressure, recorded at approximately 1.42% as of Q3 2025. Future stability in this margin is crucial for effective monetary policy transmission [15][17] 5. Government Debt Management - The management of local government debt is critical, with a focus on stabilizing the macro tax burden to ensure repayment capabilities. The macro tax burden is expected to slightly decline to 12.7% in 2026 [6][7] 6. Investment Strategies - Local government industrial guidance funds are shifting investment strategies from tax reductions to equity support, promoting a transition from land finance to equity finance [5][6] 7. Yield Curve and Credit Premium - A steep yield curve and positive credit premium are necessary to stabilize market expectations and enhance economic growth confidence. The 10-year government bond yield is expected to range between 1.7% and 2.0% in 2026 [2][19] 8. Inflation and Economic Risks - Key macroeconomic risks include inflation, liquidity flow, and regulatory policy changes. The CPI is projected to grow by 0.5% in 2025, with PPI showing a range of -0.5% to 1.0% [20] Other Important Insights 1. Unified Market Construction - The establishment of a unified market is essential for addressing issues related to chaotic local investment and overcapacity, which have been exacerbated by declining macro tax burdens [6] 2. Liquidity Management - The central bank has implemented various liquidity management tools, including open market operations, to ensure stable liquidity supply [10][11] 3. Interest Rate Corridor Adjustments - Changes in the interest rate corridor mechanism have been noted, with a focus on enhancing the central bank's policy rate influence [12][13] 4. Loan and Bond Yield Relationship - The average after-tax return on loans is currently aligned with the 10-year government bond yield, indicating limited room for further rate cuts without disrupting this balance [14] 5. Future of Monetary Policy - The monetary policy stance is expected to remain supportive, with potential adjustments to the 7-day reverse repurchase rate to facilitate further interest rate cuts [11][18] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the fiscal and monetary policy outlook for 2026, highlighting the anticipated challenges and strategies within the Chinese economy.