中国股票策略：2026 年 A 股展望 -迈向新台阶-China Equity Strategy-A-share outlook 2026

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: A-share market in China - Outlook for 2026: Expected earnings growth of 8% YoY, driven by faster nominal GDP growth and margin recovery due to supportive policies and anti-involution efforts [2][42][43] Core Insights and Arguments - Earnings Growth: A-share earnings growth is projected to accelerate from 6% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, supported by a recovery in margins and nominal GDP growth [2][42] - Market Valuation: The A-share market's equity risk premium remains above historical averages, indicating potential for further re-rating as macro policies and household savings shift towards equities [2][62][63] - Market Correction: Recent market pullbacks are attributed to short-term factors, including profit-taking and a retreat in global tech sectors, but are seen as buying opportunities [3][18] - Investment Themes: Key themes for 2026 include technology self-reliance, consumer recovery, selective investments in solar and lithium sectors, and the global competitiveness of Chinese companies [4][28] Tactical Style and Sector Allocations - Investment Style: Growth stocks are expected to outperform value stocks, with cyclicals likely to outperform defensives due to narrowing PPI contraction [5][71] - Sector Preferences: Favorable sectors include electronics, telecom, non-bank financials, national defense, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and electrical equipment [5][63] Preferred A-share Stocks - Top Picks: - Sungrow (300274.SZ): Buy, market cap Rmb 3,643 million, target price Rmb 225.00, upside 28% [6] - NAURA Technology (002371.SZ): Buy, market cap Rmb 3,028 million, target price Rmb 545.50, upside 31% [6] - Wanhua Chemical (600309.SS): Buy, market cap Rmb 1,979 million, target price Rmb 84.00, upside 33% [6] - Huatai Securities A (601688.SS): Buy, market cap Rmb 1,890 million, target price Rmb 31.20, upside 49% [6] Economic Indicators and Projections - GDP Growth: Expected real GDP growth of 4.5% in 2026, with CPI inflation at 0.4% and a slight decline in PPI [28][30] - Infrastructure Investment: Anticipated recovery in infrastructure investment growth to 4-6% in 2026, supported by special financing tools [29] - Consumption Policies: Shift towards consumption-focused policies is expected, with household consumption share projected to rise from 40% in 2024 to 43-45% by 2030 [33][37] Risks and Considerations - Trade Tensions: Ongoing trade tensions with the US and potential tech constraints pose risks to the A-share market [35] - Property Market: Continued downturn in the property market may affect overall economic sentiment and consumption [29][33] Additional Insights - Liquidity Trends: The balance of margin financing has stabilized, indicating a cautious approach among investors [18][21] - Household Savings: There is significant potential for reallocation of household savings into the A-share market, which could drive further valuation re-rating [78][81] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the A-share market outlook, investment strategies, and economic projections for 2026.