中国：10 月工业利润与营收双降；11 月 PMI 前瞻-China_ Both industrial profits and revenue fell in October; November PMI preview

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese industrial sector, highlighting significant declines in both industrial profits and revenue for October 2023 compared to previous months [1][2][6]. Core Findings 1. Industrial Profits Decline: - Year-over-year, China's industrial profits fell by 8.9% in October, a stark contrast to a 23.0% increase in September. Sequentially, profits decreased by 8.3% non-annualized after seasonal adjustment, following a 9.7% decline in September [1][2][6]. 2. Downstream vs. Upstream Performance: - Downstream industries experienced a profit decline of 5.6% year-over-year in October, compared to a 20.5% increase in September. Upstream industries saw a more significant drop of 14.9% year-over-year, down from a 35.8% increase in September. The equipment manufacturing sector contributed positively, adding 2.8 percentage points to the 1.9% year-over-year growth of industrial profits in the first ten months of the year [6]. 3. Industrial Revenue Decline: - Industrial revenue also fell by 4.0% year-over-year in October, compared to a 3.3% increase in September. Sequentially, revenue decreased by 4.8% non-annualized in October, contrasting with a 0.8% increase in September. Overall profit margins declined on a 12-month average basis, with both upstream and downstream profit margins deteriorating [1][2][6]. 4. PMI Forecasts for November: - The NBS manufacturing PMI is expected to rise slightly to 49.3 in November from 49.0 in October. The RatingDog manufacturing PMI is forecasted to remain flat at 50.6. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI is anticipated to decrease to 50.0 from 50.1 in October, reflecting subdued construction activity due to slower fiscal spending [6][7]. Additional Insights - The report indicates a weakening in port activity in coastal regions compared to the previous month, although there is a noted positive seasonal bias in the RatingDog manufacturing PMI for November. The services PMI is expected to remain largely unchanged, impacted by ongoing challenges in the property sector [7]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state of the Chinese industrial sector, highlighting both the challenges and the anticipated trends moving forward.