中国仍在 “消费不足” 吗？迷思与真相-Is China still under - consuming_ Myth vs. truth

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: China Consumer - China's Consumption Status: Contrary to the belief that China is under-consuming, the country is one of the fastest-growing major economies. Per capita volume consumption is comparable to global peers, exceeding the US, Japan, and South Korea in certain food categories such as proteins, eggs, seafood, and vegetables [1][10][21]. - Pricing Dynamics: The perception of under-consumption is largely due to low pricing, which can be less than 40% of US prices in many categories, especially services [1][10][21]. Macro View - Household Consumption to GDP Ratio: China's household consumption accounts for approximately 40% of GDP, which is lower than the US (68%), Japan (54%), and South Korea (48%). However, when adjusted for social transfers in kind, this ratio increases by about 7%, bringing China closer to South Korea and Japan [2][66][71]. - Potential for Upside: There is potential for growth in higher-quality and experience-based services, including preventive healthcare, leisure, and entertainment [2][72]. Corporate China: E2SG Opportunities - E2SG Definition: E2SG stands for Efficiency, Experience, Service, and Global. Companies can leverage these themes for growth, focusing on cost efficiency, enhancing customer experience, and exploring global markets [3][4]. - Stock Picks: The report identifies several companies that fit into the E2SG framework, including Pop Mart, Midea, Geely, H World, Trip.com, Tencent, and Damai, which are expected to be long-term winners despite some facing near-term challenges [4]. Consumption Patterns - High Volume Consumption: China exhibits high volume consumption in staples, particularly food, while discretionary categories may see growth potential. For example, China's per capita protein consumption exceeds that of the US [26][27]. - Service Consumption: China's consumption of core services like housing, healthcare, and education is comparable to global peers, but there is still room for improvement in higher-quality services [27][30]. Pricing Analysis - Low Prices: China's nominal consumption value is suppressed by low prices, which are influenced by structural factors such as being the world's factory, intense competition, and government price regulations [32][35][52]. - Comparison with Developed Markets: Consumer goods and services in China are generally cheaper than in the US, Japan, and South Korea, with significant price differences in various categories [33][34]. Urbanization and Future Growth - Urbanization Impact: Urbanization is expected to continue, with projections suggesting that the urbanization rate could surpass 70% during the 15th Five-Year Plan. This shift is anticipated to boost household consumption significantly [60][73]. - Discretionary Spending Potential: There is significant upside potential in discretionary healthcare and education, as well as leisure and entertainment services, which are currently underdeveloped [72][76]. Conclusion - Investment Opportunities: The analysis suggests that while China faces challenges in consumption patterns, there are substantial opportunities for growth in various sectors, particularly in higher-quality and experience-based services. The E2SG framework provides a strategic lens for identifying potential investment opportunities in the Chinese consumer market [3][4][72].