2026 前瞻_大宗商品展望-Year Ahead 2026_ Commodity Outlook

Commodity Outlook Summary Industry Overview - The report focuses on the commodities sector, highlighting trends and forecasts for various commodities including precious metals, industrial metals, energy, and agricultural products [1][2][3][10]. Key Themes and Forecasts 1. Strong Performance Expected in 2026 - Commodities are projected to have another strong performance year, with the ICE MLCX TR index up 6% year-to-date, driven by gains in precious and industrial metals [1]. - Global GDP is forecasted to expand by 3.3% in 2026, with inflation expected to remain sticky at 2.9% [1][10]. 2. Gold and Silver Outlook - Gold prices could potentially reach $5,000/oz due to central bank and investor buying, supported by fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty [6][10]. - Silver demand may face headwinds from solar PV technology, but overall, both metals are expected to benefit from geopolitical risks and inflation expectations [2][10]. 3. Industrial Metals Demand - Industrial metals are expected to remain tight, with copper and aluminum likely to benefit from supply disruptions and stockpiling [2][10]. - The report anticipates a deficit in copper due to limited mine projects and outages at major mines [41]. 4. Energy Sector Dynamics - Oil prices are expected to average $60/bbl for Brent and $57/bbl for WTI in 2026, with a surplus in the oil market due to excess supply from OPEC+ [10]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly from Venezuela and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could tighten the oil market despite the overall bearish outlook [2][10]. 5. Agricultural Commodities - A bearish outlook is maintained for wheat and soybean meal, while soybean oil is expected to see substantial upside due to strong demand [2][10]. - Agricultural commodities are influenced by robust supply growth and subdued demand, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions [2][10]. Additional Insights - Strategic Inventory Accumulation - Strategic inventory accumulation, particularly by China, is expected to continue, supporting both energy and metals markets despite overall demand and balance conditions [52][53]. - The report notes that stockpiling has been influenced more by trade policy than geopolitical strategy in the metals sector [53]. - Diversification and Inflation Hedging - Commodities are increasingly viewed as essential for diversification and inflation hedging in investment portfolios, especially under current macroeconomic conditions [3][10]. - The report suggests that commodities could provide a unique hedge to traditional 60/40 portfolios amid rising inflation and geopolitical risks [3][10]. - Market Risks and Opportunities - Upside risks for commodities include potential geopolitical shocks and renewed demand from sectors like AI and defense spending, which could support industrial metals [41][10]. - Conversely, downside risks stem from excess supply in energy markets and potential economic slowdowns affecting demand [2][10]. Conclusion - The commodities sector is poised for a strong performance in 2026, driven by various macroeconomic factors, strategic inventory accumulation, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Investors are encouraged to consider commodities for diversification and as a hedge against inflation.