亚洲存储_反馈 -AI 泡沫讨论，乐观叙事占主导-Asia Memory_ Asia marketing feedback – Discussion on AI bubble, positive narrative dominates

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Semiconductor and Memory Market, particularly focusing on DRAM and NAND sectors - Key Focus: AI investment trends and their impact on memory demand Core Insights 1. AI Investment Concerns: Investors are worried about a potential AI bubble, but the overall sentiment remains positive regarding AI development and demand growth [1][7] 2. Investment Continuity: There are no signs of delays or cancellations in AI investments, with growth driven by an increase in paid users and context generation [2][7] 3. Demand Dynamics: While there are downside risks in B2C demand (smartphones and PCs), demand from servers, HBM, SOCAMM2, and eSSD is expected to offset these declines [2][3] 4. Memory Capacity Growth: DRAM supply is projected to grow by 21% year-over-year in 2026, with a 7% increase in capacity. Korean capex is expected to rise by 19% year-over-year to KRW80 trillion in 2026 [2][4] 5. Emerging Catalysts: SOCAMM2 and eSSD are identified as key growth drivers, with SOCAMM2 expected to account for 10% of DRAM demand by 2027, up from less than 1% in 2025 [3][7] Company Recommendations 1. Preferred Stocks: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are rated as "Buy" due to their undervaluation and improving return on equity (ROE) [4][7] 2. Target Prices: - Samsung Electronics: Target price of KRW170,000, implying a 79.3% upside from the current price of KRW94,800 [4][72] - SK Hynix: Target price of KRW850,000, suggesting a 63.1% upside from the current price of KRW521,000 [4][72] Market Dynamics 1. Commodity DRAM Shortage: A shortage in commodity DRAM is anticipated, with margins expected to improve, enhancing the negotiation position of DRAM makers [3][7] 2. HBM Market Growth: The HBM market is projected to grow by 58% year-over-year in 2026, with HBM4 maintaining a price premium of 30-40% [3][7] 3. Capex Trends: Total capital expenditure (capex) for global cloud service providers (CSPs) is expected to reach USD510 billion in 2026, a 30% year-over-year increase [23][27] Risks and Considerations 1. Downside Risks: Potential risks include further appreciation of the KRW, global trade restrictions, and economic slowdowns affecting consumer and enterprise IT demand [72] 2. Market Penetration: Chinese NAND makers pose an ongoing risk, although their penetration into the eSSD market is expected to take time [2][3] Additional Insights 1. AI Server Demand: AI servers are projected to significantly contribute to eSSD demand growth, with a CAGR of 85% from 2025 to 2027 [49][50] 2. Long-term Outlook: The DRAM cycle is expected to remain strong until at least 2027, with continued investment in AI infrastructure by major players [4][7] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the semiconductor and memory market dynamics, investment recommendations, and potential risks.