全球宏观展望与策略_全球利率、大宗商品、汇率及新兴市场-Global Macro Outlook and Strategy_ Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Global Macro Outlook: The call discusses the macroeconomic outlook, focusing on US rates, international rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets [3][4][5][6]. US Rates - Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed is expected to skip the December meeting, with easing anticipated in January and April 2026. The funds rate target range is projected to be 3.25-3.5% by mid-2026 [3][10][15]. - Yield Forecasts: 2-year Treasury yields are expected to reach 3.60% in 1H26 and 3.85% by YE26. 10-year yields are projected to rise to 4.25% in 1H26 and 4.35% by YE26 [10][15]. - Financing Gap: A smaller financing gap is anticipated due to lower medium-term deficit projections, but a large gap is expected to emerge in FY26 [19][16]. International Rates - Market Performance: USD rates outperformed with a 1-2 basis point increase, while EUR rates sold off by 2-3 basis points. The UK saw a steeper 2s/30s curve [4][33]. - UK Economic Data: The UK labor market data was softer than expected, raising concerns about fiscal policy and potential tax changes [4][41]. Commodities - Oil Market Outlook: Global oil demand is projected to grow by 0.9 mbd in 2025 and 1.2 mbd in 2026, while supply is expected to outpace demand. Price forecasts are $58 for Brent and $54 for WTI in 2026 [85]. - Natural Gas Prices: US natural gas prices are forecasted to average $3.74/MMBtu in 2026, driven by production growth to meet LNG demand [88]. - Base Metals: A bullish outlook on copper is maintained, with prices expected to rise to $12,500/mt in 1H26 and average $12,075/mt for the full year 2026 [89]. Currencies - EUR/USD Forecast: A bullish view on EUR/USD is maintained, with a target of 1.22. However, gains may be moderate due to balanced risks on the US side [53][58]. - Emerging Markets: The outlook for emerging markets has improved, with a recommendation to stay overweight on EM FX and rates [6][10]. Additional Insights - Foreign Demand for Treasuries: Despite concerns about 'de-dollarization', foreign demand for US Treasuries has firmed in 2025, although private demand may decline due to higher yields [27][66]. - Equity Market Trends: US equity buying continues, with net equity purchases from foreign investors increasing [67][69]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape, commodity forecasts, and currency outlooks.