大宗商品价格更新_供应缺口显现，需求成焦点-Commodity price update_ Supply falls short. Eyes on demand

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: European Metals & Mining - Key Focus: Commodity price updates, demand and supply dynamics, and macroeconomic factors affecting the metals market Commodity Price Forecasts - Copper: 2026E price forecast increased by 4% to $11,751/ton or $5.33/lb [1][11] - Iron Ore: 2026E price forecast increased by 8% to $97/ton [1][11] - Aluminium: 2026E price forecast increased by 8.7% to $3,125/ton or $1.42/lb [1][11] - Gold: Long-term price forecast raised by 20% to $3,000/oz [1][11] - Lithium: Expected to have troughed, with a more balanced outlook [1] Company Recommendations - BHP: Buy recommendation with a price objective of A$49, bullish on copper [2] - Rio Tinto: Buy recommendation, price objective raised to GBp7400, bullish on copper and aluminium [2][22] - Glencore: Buy recommendation, price objective of GBp470, focus on copper [2] - Anglo American: Buy recommendation, price objective raised to GBp3100, positive on TECK deal [2][25] - Antofagasta: Buy recommendation, price objective raised to GBp3300, expected 30% volume growth [2][16] - Maaden: Underperform rating, price objective of SAR47 [2] - Fortescue: Underperform rating, cautious on iron ore [2] China Market Insights - Domestic Demand: Weak consumer demand and property market, with fixed asset investment (FAI) turning negative year-on-year [3] - Spending: Year-to-date grid-related spending on copper and aluminium increased by approximately 10% YoY [3] - Exports: Volatile, with a notable decline in exports to the US [3] US Market Insights - Policy Evolution: Ongoing rate cutting cycle, potential volatility from government shutdowns [4] - Trade Wars: Tariffs and trade wars could negatively impact global growth and metal prices [4] - Critical Minerals: Discussion on how to address supply issues [4] Demand Drivers - Decarbonization: Ongoing decarbonization efforts expected to drive demand for metals [5] - AI Influence: Potential long-term demand driver due to advancements in AI [5] - Investment Strategy: Long-term investors may consider buying and holding despite potential short-term corrections [5] Revenue Breakdown and Earnings Changes - Rio Tinto: 2025E EBITDA increased by 5% to $24.2 billion, driven by higher iron ore and copper prices [23] - Anglo American: 2025E EBITDA increased by 4% to $6.2 billion, mainly due to higher iron ore and copper prices [26] Other Important Insights - Market Volatility: Continued uncertainty expected through 2026, with potential for further policy surprises [1] - Investment Recommendations: No changes to overall recommendations, maintaining a bullish outlook on key commodities [15] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call, focusing on the European metals and mining industry, commodity price forecasts, and macroeconomic factors influencing market dynamics.