全球宏观 2026 前瞻_态度决定高度-Global Macro Year Ahead_ 2026_ Attitude determines altitude

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global macroeconomic outlook for 2026, focusing on the impact of AI, fiscal policies, and the K-shaped recovery in various economies [1][2][16][40]. Core Themes and Arguments 1. Global Economic Outlook: - The global economy is expected to grow at 3.3% in 2026, with inflation stabilizing around 2.4% [39][42]. - The US and China are projected to drive strong global growth, with the US benefiting from AI-related investments and fiscal stimulus [42][43]. 2. K-shaped Recovery: - The recovery is characterized by uneven growth across sectors and income groups, leading to increased income inequality [16][40][41]. - The divergence in consumer sentiment and equity returns highlights the K-shaped nature of the recovery [19]. 3. Impact of AI: - AI is anticipated to boost productivity and influence growth and inflation dynamics, but it may also lead to income redistribution from labor to capital [17][18][40]. - Developed markets like the US, Japan, and Korea are well-positioned to benefit from AI advancements [17]. 4. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Dynamics: - Fiscal dominance is becoming a significant factor in market pricing, particularly in the US and Japan, raising concerns about the sustainability of public finances [22][23]. - The call suggests that central banks may face challenges in maintaining independence due to fiscal pressures [22][23]. 5. Currency and FX Market Outlook: - The US dollar is expected to remain dominant, but there is a gradual trend towards FX reserve diversification [24]. - The call highlights tactical bullish trades on the USD against JPY and AUD, while remaining bearish beyond Q1 2026 [10][76]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. Volatility and Market Risks: - Current market conditions show low volatility and high valuations, making markets vulnerable to shocks [9][12][59]. - The need for tail risk hedges is emphasized, particularly for portfolios that are long carry [9][10]. 2. Emerging Markets (EM) Outlook: - EM local markets are expected to deliver double-digit USD returns, particularly in currencies like BRL, COP, and ZAR [11][13]. - However, caution is advised regarding sovereign external debt, with a forecast of 4% total return and wider spreads [13]. 3. Geopolitical Considerations: - The US is showing renewed interest in Latin America and other emerging markets for critical inputs, influenced by national security considerations [38]. - The geopolitical landscape is expected to impact supply chains and investment strategies [38]. 4. Inflation Dynamics: - Service inflation is expected to remain sticky across most countries, while China is likely to continue exporting disinflation in goods [47][48]. - The call anticipates different central bank reactions to inflation, with most expected to end their easing cycles in 2026 [49][50]. 5. Investment Strategies: - Specific investment strategies include long positions in US rates, EM local bonds, and tactical trades in FX markets [20][21][70][75]. - The call suggests a focus on carry trades and hedging against potential market disruptions [61][63]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape, investment strategies, and potential risks for 2026.