中国-资本支出在收缩，下一步如何演变？

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Capital Expenditure Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically the nominal Fixed Asset Investment (FAI), which is experiencing a significant contraction. This trend raises concerns among investors regarding the implications for deflation and overall economic health [2][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments Contraction of Nominal FAI - China's nominal FAI is broadly contracting, with notable declines in the real estate, manufacturing, and infrastructure sectors. The FAI growth rate for real estate has dropped to -24.1% year-on-year as of October 2025, while infrastructure and manufacturing also show significant downturns [5][10][31]. Future Scenarios for FAI - Three potential scenarios for the future trajectory of nominal FAI are outlined: 1. Baseline Scenario: Infrastructure investment rebounds, exports improve moderately, and consumption receives some support, leading to a slight alleviation of deflationary pressures [10][48]. 2. Weak FAI with Strong Exports: Nominal FAI remains weak, but a strong recovery in global demand boosts exports significantly, potentially stabilizing the economy [49]. 3. Continued Weakness: Both nominal FAI and exports remain weak, with no substantial consumer stimulus, leading to deeper economic slowdown and increased deflationary pressures [49]. Sector-Specific Insights - Infrastructure FAI: The growth rate has sharply declined to -12.1% year-on-year as of October 2025, marking a significant downturn compared to previous periods. This decline is attributed to a reduction in fiscal deficits and slower issuance of local government bonds [17][19][21]. - Manufacturing FAI: The slowdown is driven by a combination of weak non-tech exports and "anti-involution" measures, which have led to more cautious capacity expansion in the manufacturing sector [25][27]. - Real Estate FAI: The share of real estate FAI in total nominal FAI has decreased from a peak of 24% in 2021 to 14% currently. The sector is facing a severe contraction, with sales and prices declining significantly [31][32][41]. Economic Implications - The contraction in FAI is seen as a necessary adjustment to address overcapacity, but there is concern over the lack of effective consumer stimulus measures. The report emphasizes the need for policies to support consumption to manage overall demand and social stability risks [12][12][48]. Additional Important Insights - Investors are particularly focused on the broad and rapid decline in nominal FAI over recent months, with concerns about potential data underreporting in certain sectors targeted by anti-involution policies [11][12]. - The report highlights the importance of addressing the macroeconomic landscape through strategic investments and consumption support to mitigate deflationary risks [12][48]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of China's capital expenditure, emphasizing the challenges and potential scenarios that could unfold in the coming years.