11月房地产市场情况解读

Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate market in November 2025 continued to show signs of weakness, with significant pressure persisting due to high base effects from the previous year [2][3] - The new housing market is gradually cooling down, with new regulation products performing better than old ones, but overall pressure is increasing [4] Key Market Data - November new housing supply decreased by 40% year-on-year, with significant month-on-month increases in first-tier cities like Beijing and Guangzhou, which saw growth rates of 70% and 160% respectively [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year transaction volume drop of approximately 55%, with only Guangzhou showing a month-on-month increase due to new regulation products [6] - The overall new housing absorption rate in November was 35%, down 8 percentage points year-on-year, with Beijing and Shanghai performing particularly poorly [8] Sales Performance - Real estate companies' sales trends mirrored city-level data, with a cumulative decline of 12% over the first ten months of the year [3] - The second-hand housing market saw a month-on-month recovery of 12% in November, ending a seven-month decline, but still faced a year-on-year drop of 22% [12] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Real estate companies are hesitant to increase supply due to concerns over market confidence and the challenges of adjusting prices for old regulation products [7] - The inventory level in November slightly decreased by 1% to 218 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of about 5% [11] Future Outlook - The sales scale for 2026 is expected to continue the downward trend of 2025, with a projected decline of around 5% [14] - The effectiveness of potential interest rate cuts remains uncertain, and their implementation could significantly impact market dynamics if they are substantial and cover existing mortgage loans [15] Regional Insights - In second-tier cities, the average absorption rates were notably high, with cities like Changsha reaching 84% due to the introduction of new regulation products [10] - The housing prices in northwestern cities like Lanzhou and Xi'an may remain stable due to structural factors, although second-hand prices could decline [18] Additional Considerations - The recent public relations incident involving Vanke has not yet significantly impacted market sales confidence [16] - Despite a large amount of land reserves reported by some real estate companies, the current market conditions do not support new construction, indicating a disconnect between land reserves and new project launches [17]