中国经济活动与政策追踪 ——11 月 28 日-China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker_ November 28

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Economic Activity and various high-frequency indicators related to consumption, production, investment, and macroeconomic activity [1][2][11]. Key Insights and Arguments 1. Consumption and Mobility - Primary Market Transactions: The daily property transaction volume in the primary market across 30 cities has increased over the last two weeks but remains below last year's levels [2][6]. - Secondary Market Transactions: The daily property transaction volume in the secondary market for 16 cities continues to be below last year's levels [6][7]. - Traffic Congestion: Traffic congestion levels are reported to be lower than last year's figures, indicating reduced mobility [7][9]. 2. Production and Investment - Steel Demand: Steel demand has remained stable and is largely in line with last year's levels, suggesting consistent industrial activity [13][14]. - Steel Production: Steel production has increased over the last two weeks but is slightly below last year's levels, indicating a potential slowdown in growth [15][17]. - Local Government Bonds: A total of RMB 4.4 trillion in local government special bonds have been issued out of a full-year quota of RMB 4.6 trillion for 2025, representing 94.3% of the annual quota [19][21]. - Coal Consumption: Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces is reported to be in line with last year's levels, reflecting stable energy demand [23]. 3. Other Macro Activity - Port Activity: Official port container throughput has increased over the last two weeks and remains above year-ago levels, indicating robust trade activity [33][35]. - Export Trends: Chinese export volume of rare earth magnets to the US increased in October, while exports to Europe declined, highlighting shifting trade dynamics [37][39]. - Freight Volume: Freight volume of departing ships at 20 major ports has edged down and is below last year's levels, suggesting potential challenges in logistics [40]. 4. Markets and Policy - Interbank Repo Rates: Interbank repo rates have remained largely stable over the last two weeks, indicating a steady liquidity environment [43][44]. - Oil Demand: The nowcast indicates that China's oil demand has declined to 17.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the latest reading, reflecting a decrease in energy consumption [45][46]. - Currency Trends: The Chinese Yuan (CNY) has appreciated against both the CFETS basket and the USD in recent weeks, indicating strengthening currency dynamics [49][50]. 5. Policy Announcements - A series of macro policy announcements have been made since mid-August, focusing on promoting consumption, investment, and growth, including: - Measures to promote consumption and expand the supply of consumer goods [50]. - Initiatives to support private investment and strategic projects [50]. - Suspension of retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products [50]. Additional Important Information - The report highlights a shift in data sources for traffic congestion from Gaode map to Baidu map, which may affect future comparisons [9]. - The increased share of local government bond proceeds spent in "Others" may include repayments for corporate arrears and delayed salaries to civil servants, indicating potential fiscal pressures [25][26]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in China.