亚洲航空板块 -2026 年展望：又一个盈利之年-Asian Airline Sector_ 2026 Outlook_ Another profitable year

Summary of the Asian Airline Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Asian Airline Sector - Outlook for 2026: Expected to be another profitable year for APAC airlines with stable margins due to various factors including manageable non-fuel cost inflation and lower fuel prices [2][5][8] Key Points Profitability and Margins - Profitability: APAC airlines' margins are expected to remain stable into 2026, supported by bottoming US tariff impacts and a stable unit revenue trend [2][8] - Fuel Prices: Average Brent oil price is projected to decline by 8% YoY to US$64/bbl, which could enhance profitability for airlines [5][8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply Deficit: 2026 is anticipated to continue experiencing a supply deficit, although the gap between flight supply growth and underlying demand growth is expected to narrow due to improved aircraft delivery rates [3][8] - Fleet Capacity Growth: New aircraft deliveries in 2026 could contribute up to 7% growth in fleet capacity in APAC, despite increased aircraft retirements [3][26][33] - Regional Variations: Supply growth will vary across markets, with pronounced deficits in Japan and Hong Kong, while higher growth is expected in Thailand, India, and Taiwan [3][42] Demand Growth - Passenger Demand: Mid-single digit growth in passenger demand is expected, driven by improving global macroeconomic conditions and increased corporate travel budgets [46][62] - Corporate Travel: Business travel expenditure is projected to grow by 8.1% YoY in 2026, indicating a recovery in corporate travel budgets [47][58] Cost Management - Cost Pressures: While there are inflationary pressures from higher wages and lease rates, unit cost outlook remains stable due to operating leverage and productivity improvements [5][8] Company-Specific Insights - Cathay Pacific: Price target raised by 15% based on a higher target forward P/B ratio, reflecting sustained high ROE [2] - ANA: Incremental profit contribution expected from its new subsidiary, Nippon Cargo Airlines, which is not fully priced in [2] Risks and Cautions - Thai Airways: Caution advised due to potential acceleration in supply growth in the latter half of 2026, which may impact unit revenue [2] - Singapore Airlines (SIA): Risks associated with ROE drag from its associate, Air India [2] Additional Insights - Cargo Demand Resilience: Positive surprises noted in 2025 regarding cargo demand resilience in response to US tariff hikes, with expectations for air cargo demand growth to regain traction in 2026 [4] - Demographic Shifts: Changes in demographics and corporate travel budgets are expected to support underlying flight demand growth [46][47] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call regarding the Asian airline sector, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.