2026 年全球 TMT 布局：机遇、风险与异类……-HOLT TMT _Navigating Global TMT in 2026_ Opportunities, Risks & Outliers..._

Summary of TMT Overview and Key Insights Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Global Technology and Communication Services (TMT) sectors, highlighting their performance and outlook for 2026 [2][5][20]. Core Insights 1. Performance Metrics: - Both Global Technology and Global Communication Services sectors have increased by 20% over the past year, outperforming all other global sectors [5][20]. - CFROI (Cash Flow Return on Investment) and Economic Profit for both sectors are projected to reach all-time highs, with nearly 15% for Technology and 8% for Communication Services in 2026 [20][21]. 2. Valuation Levels: - Technology sector valuations are considered elevated, while Communication Services present more attractive valuation levels [4][13]. - Global Technology is trading at a lower market implied yield compared to the overall market, indicating a more expensive valuation [13][16]. 3. Sector-Specific Trends: - Hyperscalers: Significant increases in CapEx (Capital Expenditures) and R&D (Research and Development) spending are expected, with CapEx forecasted to double over the next two years and R&D spending to increase by 40% [35]. - AI Landscape: The AI Winners basket has risen by approximately 45% this year, while the AI Risk basket has declined by around 30%, leading to a decade-high valuation premium for AI Winners [52][71]. - Semiconductors: The sector is expected to achieve a CFROI of 25% in 2026, driven by higher margins and demand from the AI revolution [78][87]. 4. Economic Profit: - Economic Profit for hyperscalers is forecasted to reach an all-time high of $400 billion in 2026, primarily driven by growth [48][50]. 5. Market Implied Sales Growth: - AI Winners are priced for double-digit sales growth over the next decade, contrasting with low-single digit growth for many AI Risk firms [73][100]. Additional Important Insights - Tech Hardware: The industry has maintained a stable CFROI of around 8% and is expected to improve to 10% in 2026, despite trading at a discount to the broader tech sector [122]. - Software Sector: The median 10-year sales growth CAGR for high-quality software companies is priced at 11%, with some firms like PLTR priced for growth as high as 27% [109][110]. - Valuation vs Momentum: A matrix contextualizes valuation and momentum, indicating firms in the top right offer both attractive valuations and strong momentum profiles [104]. This comprehensive overview highlights the robust performance and evolving dynamics within the TMT sectors, emphasizing the potential investment opportunities and risks associated with these industries.